EV Does It

Skywires transport concept

2011-12-11T12:04:00.001-08:00

John McCarthy was one of the seminal figures in Artificial Intelligence research in the 1960s.

One of the many ideas he came up with over the years was "Skywire" which is essentially a form of Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) using towers and cables instead of guideways.

The core concept is simple. A series of tall (100' or more) towers are dispersed throughout a city linked by roadway cables (cableways). Riding on wheels on the cableway is a computer controlled chassis with a winch. The winch lifts or lowers a transport cabin.

Operation is simple: the chassis stops at designated locations on the cableway over a landing zone. The transport cabin is lowered on a wire by the winch. Passengers enter and specify a destination. The cabin is raised and travels more or less horizontally along the cableway.

At the tops of the cableway towers it's presumed there are switches that allow the chassis to steer onto the next cableway nearest to the destination.

The concept shares many ideas with PRT while introducing new challenges and possible advantages.

Tall towers with cables hanging between them may, possibly, be less visually intrusive than PRT guideways.

Centralized or distributed routing of the chassis and cabin pairs would be similar to PRT, and would need to take into account local winds and cable loading.

Construction of stations for Skywire could be quite inexpensive, requiring only safety systems to ensure a clear spot for "landing."

A core PRT concept of "offline stations" might be accomplished in the Skywire scheme using additional cables or towers near the lowering points. The addition of more towers might worsen the economics of the system.

Extensions of the concept to transport of freight has been discussed, as was the case for PRT.

A fascinating concept from a brilliant mind.

GM Developing Spark Battery EV for 2013

2011-12-04T15:45:00.001-08:00

GM has been reluctant to revisit the battery EV concept. After the complex internal and external politics that created the EV-1 in the 90s, the company refocused on fuel cells and then gasoline hybrids. While it's continued research (using some government subsidies) in fuel cells, the battery EV has largely been ignored until now.

Most recently GM has quietly been introducing concept cars and running trials with compact EVs worldwide, the "Sail EV" concept in Shanghai, a fleet of Cruze EVs in Korea and Beat EV in India.

Enter the Spark EV. There has been speculation that the 73 mile estimated range vehicle targets younger customers in urban markets. While this seems similar to Volt some commentators point at the Fiat 500 and Mini Cooper buyers as more likely buyers, because these are the gasoline Spark's audience.

A notable feature is the lithium phosphate battery pack from A123 systems. This chemistry is less prone to the thermal runaway problems of the somewhat higher capacity LG Chem magnesium cobalt batteries in the Volt. In Michael Shnayerson's "The Car That Could" he mentions a GM engineer from their 1960s EV efforts telling a 1990s EV-1 engineer that batteries should certainly be in a center tunnel. While the Volt heeded that advice it appears reduced battery weight and packaging considerations of an extremely compact car like the Spark have changed the rules.

Early press releases out of GM are emphasizing the off the line speed of the little electric. Power comes from the 114 HP US made permanent magnet motor

The Spark looks GM "keeping skin in the game" while Nissan's Leaf sales climb. Here's hoping the company gets more confident about its impressive EV heritage and the market for them going forward.

http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20111208/OEM05/111209881

http://www.energydigital.com/green_technology/gms-fully-electric-chevy-spark-to-hit-markets-in-2013

Gasoline Fuel Cell Would Boost Electric Car Range - Technology Review

2011-12-04T15:27:00.000-08:00

Researchers at the University of Maryland have created a new form of planar solid oxide fuel cell (planar SOFC), operating at 650 degrees centigrade, which can use liquid fossil fuels directly.

Gasoline Fuel Cell Would Boost Electric Car Range - Technology Review

Indeed, both myself and others who have watched the fuel cell story unfold over many years have wondered why this hasn't been pursued sooner.

The key drawbacks of solid oxide fuel cell technology are throttle response time, power density, high temperature start time and fragility due to thermal expansion / contraction cycling of the materials. While these are significant, they seem minor given the self-reforming advantage. Due to the high temperatures at which they operate, SOFCs can reform or break down complex fossil fuels like gasoline or kerosene into hydrogen rich gas, which can then be used by the fuel cell to generate electric power.

The breakthroughs in this announcement are due to a reduction in the electrolyte thickness, giving a 10x increase in power density. Longer term the research group proposes reductions in operating temperature.

The path most automakers chose to follow was the PEM or Proton Exchange Membrane fuel cell. While it operates at low temperature, it requires grams of platinum embedded in the membrane, which can be "poisoned" by carbon monoxide in the input gas stream, which must be 99.99% pure hydrogen. Storage of hydrogen gas has also been somewhat intractable, with the best technique to date being carbon fiber storage tanks at 10,000 psi.

In current prototypes both PEM and SOFC fuel cells act as range extenders to a small battery pack onboard the vehicle, a configuration much like the Chevy Volt or Prius plug-in hybrids.

Drivers still want electric cars, Nissan says

2011-12-04T14:49:00.000-08:00

Drivers still want electric cars, Nissan says

Against the continuing tide of negative media reports Nissan reports two points.

First, consumer demand is not letting up. This contradicts concerns that there were only a small number EV enthusiasts ready to buy the vehicles. Demand is continuing in the face of modest reductions in gasoline prices as well, another factor cited.

Second, other competitors are entering the EV market, rather than abandoning it. Not directly referenced in the article, but GM and others have revived efforts to build pure batter electric cars, in several cases after a decade or more of research into hybrid systems which, in cases like the "dual mode" from GM, did not find a place in the market.

The battery EV concept remains durable and viable given modern technology like advanced batteries and navigation systems that help location charging ports.

It is a long term play, but one which is clearly working for Nissan.

Solar Parking Deck

2010-07-07T10:07:00.000-07:00

An architectural firm has taken up the idea of covering parking decks in solar panels. This is a strong concept in itself, but when combined with battery EV charging stations it becomes something even better: a peak electric demand generating station.

New, two-way EV charging systems will allow owners (sometimes at a profit) to sell energy back to the grid during times of high demand. For utilities, this could avoid the construction of expensive "peaker plants".

Considered in this way, a parking deck filled with battery EVs and covered in solar panels is a kind of giant solar battery generating plant. The key innovation here being the cost distribution between owners of the cars, the parking deck and the electric generating utility.

EV Charging Plugs: Gateways to Power

2009-06-28T14:48:00.000-07:00

Image via Wikipedia

Underwriters Laboratories approves SAE J1772 charging plug: Virtually all of the automakers from the U.S., Japan and Europe are planning to use the standard plug on upcoming electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, including in the Chevy Volt.

The charging plug is a critical gateway to success for electric vehicles, as was amply demonstrated during the 1990s.

Back then, GM promulgated the Hughes Electronics developed "Magnecharge" inductive charging system, touting the safety of its inductive design. However, a fire in the garge of an EV-1 leasee proved this was no guaruntee. Inductive charging relies on bringing two magnetic coils in very close proximity. Increased distance reduces efficiency and power transfer. If I recall correctly the fire was caused by a design flaw, where the Magnecharge 'paddle' would heat up if not inserted correctly, leaving the coils out of alignment. This was quickly resolved by GM and Hughes, but caused the EV community to collectively hold its breath, anticipating negative publicity which never came.

Meanwhile, Ford and Honda used the less glamorous "AVCON" conductive charging plug. The Avcon used a set of metal contacts, which were not activated until a 'circuit check' signal was received by the plug head. Only then, a circuit breaker would be magnetically closed to turn on the power.

The AVCON was an extremely simple design compared to Magnecharge. A small circuit board and a breaker was contained in a box about a foot square and a few inches deep. Magnecharge boxes were nearly one hundred pounds, had complete computer systems onboard that displayed vehicle charging status. It was nice, but was it really neccessary?

GM thought so, because they were using charging plugs to fight a bluRay/HD-DVD style format war. If they won, their competitors would need to retrofit all cars in the field. As it was, owners of charging locations needed to purchase at least one of each unit, creating the possibility that 'your' type of charging station might not be available in an 'EV charging' spot.

The J1772 standard is designed to resolve this before a format war breaks out. It supports two-way communication with the vehicle's onboard charging system, several charging power levels, and Vehicle to Grid -ready. Someday your EV may sell power back to the grid during periods of high demand.

While the article referenced above claims all is well, there is however an issue based on power differences in Europe and the US. In the US power is more commonly delivered at high amperage on two 'pins'. In Europe, at somewhat lower amperage on three 'pins'. Thus a different standard has been proposed by Daimler and RWE.

Who will win? With millions at stake it should be interesting to watch. But this time around it doesn't appear we'll have two standards in one country.

Mitsubishi launches production of the iMiEV

2009-06-06T08:34:00.000-07:00

Image via Wikipedia

The first shot has been fired. Mitsubishi is the first major automaker to begin building a battery electric car since the 1990s. As AutoblogGreen reports, initial production will be small, but the ramp up will come quickly (if demand justifies it).

The primary loser in this may be Th!nk Nordic, as the iMiEV is clearly targeted at exactly the same consumer segment.

Mitsubishi launches production of the iMiEV

RIGZONE - Oil Patch Digs in on Tax Issue

2009-06-02T12:46:00.000-07:00

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The White House says strengthening international tax laws could raise $210 billion over 10 years, as well as create a greater incentive for multinational companies to invest in the U.S. rather than taking their money and jobs overseas.

But companies in the oil and gas industry, along with a chorus of U.S. business groups, say the measures would penalize them by adding costs, make them uncompetitive with foreign companies and possibly force them to downsize.
- RIGZONE - Oil Patch Digs in on Tax Issue

In what's become a familiar pattern the new Obama administration is attempting to roll back tax breaks which act as subsidies for the oil industry. Nearly a century of land use laws, direct tax incentives, etc. have accrued to give the oil industry considerable financial advantage versus alternative energy sources.

As the article points out, this effort is likely to fail, as did a previous attempt to fix a "mistake" that eliminated public benefit from new oil and gas extraction in the Gulf of Mexico.

My opinion: given the current, lopsided market for energy, where cleaner alternatives are at a significant disadvantage relative to traditional sources like oil, we face two choices. The first is to reduce subsidies for oil and gas. As previous powerplays have shown, this is not politically feasible. Thus, we're left with piling on new subsidies for alternative energy, or technically advancing until alternatives have a 10x or greater advantage in the market.

Privatize Canadian Reactor Company? CANDU!

2009-05-30T22:35:00.000-07:00

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During the first wave of nuclear reactor construction in the 1950s and 60s Canada's national atomic energy company made some interesting and very practical design choices. The CANDU series uses heavy water (deuterium) as a moderator, and as a result their neutron "flux" can "burn" natural (unenriched) uranium and lower grade ores. They also garnered a deserved reputation for reliability, with 80% or better uptime, while other designs underwent significant teething problems. However, their need for tons of 97.5% pure heavy water moderator fluid, and therefore a fairly large "core", meant overall costs weren't significantly less than other designs. Other reactors caught up in terms of reliability after a decade or so. But even so, CANDU reactors were sold around the world, and the advantage of burning lower enrichment fuels very efficiently remains attractive. That efficiency also means fewer waste products.

Against this backdrop, one can understand the nuclear industry's excitement at hearing that AECL (Atomic Energy of Canada, the company which designed CANDU and its successor-to-be) is being broken up for sale. The current company is claimed to be "too small" to survive on its own.

It will be interesting to see where this goes. AECL has a next generation Advanced CANDU Reactor in development that retains the current advantages, with a core design that's 1/2 the size (and deuterium loading). This should make it an attractive buyout target.

labs.moto.com » Blog Archive » DIY Android Home Energy Monitor

2009-05-29T22:00:00.001-07:00

Now here’s an interesting way to deal with the “dumb” electrical grid until it gets smarter: have the internet “browse” it.

Moto Labs used Google’s Android mobile phone operating system, running on a single board computer, to send webcam pictures of the electric meter dials to Flickr. A little image recognition later and you get charts of your power usage.

While this sounds a bit “Rube Goldberg” its actually a good solution because its non-invasive, that is, it reads the power without requiring the builder to touch any high power lines going into the house. There are commercially available inductive power reading devices, but this one is by far a safer way to do things.

I’ve come to believe that the first step in conserving any resource is helping people see clearly when they’re using it. In decades past electricity and gasoline have been so cheap that it was “in the noise” financially for many people. With recent price rises that’s no longer the case. But who out there can say how much it really costs to run the home AC? If you knew it cost $5/day to cool your home would you be more careful about it?

labs.moto.com » Blog Archive » DIY Android Home Energy Monitor

First Google Power Meter Partners

2009-05-20T11:45:00.000-07:00

Google is partnering with a number of electric utilities (link here). They will display electricity consumption data from home "smart meters" in private, Google-hosted web pages.

This is a great way to let consumers see how they're using energy, and plan to conserve it.

Very Stimulating: Rail Wins Big Everywhere

2009-02-14T13:07:00.000-08:00

High-speed and inner-city rail: Went from $300 million in House bill to $2.25 billion in Senate to $8 billion in final version. There also is a $6.9 billion provision for public transit. - CNN Reporting on the stimulus package

If you're a rail fan for long distance travel or admire light rail for inner city transit, then the recently passed stimulus package will make you smile.

As CNN points out appropriations for rail ballooned during negotiations. Presumably some of this was due to there being a large number of "shovel ready" transit projects, proposed during the run-up in gasoline prices and now starved for funding due to the economic downturn.

Let's hope that city planners think a little out of the box, and consider things like bus rapid transit along with the traditional technologies like streetcars, e.g. light rail.

Los Angeles Red Car Trolleys, Another Side

2009-02-08T16:36:00.000-08:00

A persistent urban myth is that General Motors destroyed public transit across the US by purchasing trolley systems and replacing them with buses.

While reading about Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) I found a remarkably cogent description of the history and evolution of public transit in general. Chapter 3, "The Rise and Fall of Public Transportation" from "Innovation and Public Policy" by Catherine Burke, pulled together several threads which had previously made me cautious about accepting the "GM killed the trolleys" dogma.

The book's main topic is: Why has it been so difficult to innovate in the realm of public transportation? This was examined from a number of angles, including political, economic, and basics such as the level of service.

On page 49 "The Electric Streetcar" joins the chain of public transit history. Electric Trolleys were an evolution from horse and cable drawn systems. In Los Angeles the first system came online in about 1895. This preceded the era of easily available electricity, and a major capital cost was building power plants.

By the 1920s the system was already in decline, saved for a short time by a resurgence of riders in WW2. Fully 30 years before GM's purported monopolistic sabotage, trolley systems were already under financial pressure from automobiles. At that time, traffic was still not a concern, and the vastly better level of service from personal cars made them a first choice.

One aspect of better service was route flexibility. By the 1920s cars could go nearly anywhere, while trolley systems demanded huge capital costs to add new routes. It is arguable that municipal roads are a form of subsidy for automotive traffic, but their cost and flexibility were still, at the time, superior.

Saddled with ever increasing costs for route expansion and maintenance system operators tended to sell off their profitable sub-business: electric power generation. However, once this was gone, their ability to meet costs only worsened.

For a time in the 1920s the trolleys also faced competition from private jitney buses. These provided a level of service and cost somewhere between cars and trolleys. The trolley system operators' response? Regulate the jitney buses. They were forced to operate on licensed, fixed routes, which put them out of business in short order. Rather than push customers back to the trolley systems, however, autos gained further in popularity.

By the 1950s, when GM is claimed to have sabotaged them, trolley systems were nearly dead, the few remaining operating under heavy subsidy, as they do today. At the time buses were introduced traffic was still not as heavy as it is today in areas like Los Angeles. An exclusive right-of-way, like a trolley track, now provides improved service simply because it avoids the jammed freeways. Its costs, however, have only risen with the density of urban development.

The history chapter of "Innovation and Public Policy" reveals design competition in the public sphere, with vehicles and service becoming more personal over time: train, trolley, jitney, automobile. Meanwhile, urban development vastly overran the capacity of the road systems that won out, which has improved the prospects of exclusive right-of-way systems like light rail.

However, this hints at paths never taken: personal vehicles, without operator control, on exclusive rights-of-way. There any many variations, but the ones visible in popular media are the Johnny Cab automated taxi (Total Recall) and the MagLev (Minority Report). In the academic realm these concepts are related to fully automated self-driving cars, and Personal Rapid Transit.

More information on PRT can be found at this website.

Automotive Panel Explores Future of Hybrids

2008-12-12T08:18:00.000-08:00

TechKnow, a Michigan-based advocacy group, held a panel with representatives from major automakers in late October to discuss the future of hybrid cars. Note that this took place before the election and before the storm of controversy over the automaker bailout. Overall the tone seems to have been moderate, with skepticism over how quickly the technology might be adapted. I would imagine that after the announcement of the recession and automaker bailout problems that skepticism will be much higher.

While batteries were singled out in the usual way by a CAR representative, i.e. "lithium chemistry is promising, but development is needed", the other automakers fell into a pattern.

The Ford representative said "Is there too much hype over hybrids?" This statement seems disingenious because the same question was never raised regarding fuel cell technology, which has always faced much tougher hurdles. The rep pointed out that the adoption rate of the technology would be very slow, pointing out the 3% penetration of current hybrids after 10 years of sales. However, adoption curves usually have a "take off" point. This will surely be delayed by the current economic crisis.

John Lauckner of GM gave an upbeat summary of their hybrid work and pointed out that operational costs with gasoline were about 12 cents a mile, whereas electricity cost only 2 cents per mile. Upfront costs would, however, be much higher for hybrids.

An analysis presented by Richard Curtin, a Director at the Institute for Social Research at University of Michigan, noted that consumers respond negatively to upfront costs. However, the higher prices to market penetration figures he gave match up with the adoption curve & cost reductions that come from increasing sales.

Mini E for Electric: Lease Only

2008-10-19T21:39:00.001-07:00

History repeats itself...

BMW and Mini have announced the "Mini E", the electric Cooper for which we've all been waiting. While the specs are indeed spectacular, the high-volt bulldog won't be yours forever, won't even be yours for long, since the company plans to lease just 500 units for only one year.

The car has a 35 KwH battery pack. EV-1 had 21 KwH in the Gen II NiMH version. Recharging time is only 2.5 hours, likely to just under but not quite full. Advertised range is 150 miles. More than adequate for average driving. The rub: no back seat. Apparently the battery pack hunkers down there, probably leaving a high shelf to display your fine taste in automotive magazines.

But overall I honestly can't imagine: why would any company set themselves up to repeat GM's spectacular public relations debacle with the EV-1? Let's hope BMW has thought this through.

Corn Ethanol Business Crashing

2008-10-19T21:20:00.001-07:00

As vehicle miles traveled and the price of oil drop due to recession likewise support for alternative fuel prices is vanishing. Exacerbating the problem, prices of natural gas and corn feedstock have also risen, tightening profit margins. Some corn ethanol producers in Kansas and Ohio declared bankruptcy in the last week. The USDA's rural development office may provide up to $25 million to keep small businesses of this type afloat.

[From Des Moines Register via GCC]

Free Piston Engines

2008-10-04T17:25:00.000-07:00

Research news about free piston engines is popping up on blogs like Green Car Congress. Basically its a tube with a double ended piston inside. Combustion happens at the closed ends of the tube, bouncing the piston back and forth. The piston carries magnets that generate alternating current in a coil wrapped around the tube. Theoretical results show this machine could be 50% efficient, matching fuel cells while being much cheaper to build with current technology.

"Free piston generators" could mean cars and truck move to all electric transmissions. Instead of mechanically coupled piston to wheels, you'd couple the generator to a single speed reduction gear electric motor with with a fully electronic controller and a small bank of capacitors (only needed to smooth out generator "catch up" lag).

This design could also be extended into a "plug-in" style Electric Car by adding a modest size battery pack.

The main problem with the free piston machine is clearly vibration! It has a single mass bouncing back and forth. However, if built as a pair of parallel tubes, with pistons moving in opposition, coupled not mechanically but electronically, the vibration would be reduced to a bit of torque from center to center on the piston diameters.

The Road Ahead

2008-09-05T14:18:00.000-07:00

THERE is nothing like high oil prices, panic-selling of big cars and the prospect of swingeing new penalties on carbon-spewing vehicles to concentrate the minds of the world’s carmakers. In less than two years something remarkable has happened. Technologies once regarded by horsepower-obsessed marketing departments as politically correct public-relations fluff, never likely to see the light of day, are entering the mainstream just as fast as the car firms can get them there.

Indeed. This article in the Economist details the process that I've watched with glassy-eyed and slack jawed disbelief over the last few months.

Automakers normally move at a pace more similar to Glacial and Geologic timescales. Their rigid 3+ year product development and release cycles, along with nose-to-the-grindstone attention to a micrometer definition of "mainstream vehicle" makes these announcement seem all the more surreal.

Well, here's to "surreality". Perhaps Dali should have designed an electric car. Oh, I forgot: The Aptera!

Oil-Supply Data Probed for Manipulation

2008-09-04T15:52:00.000-07:00

Commodity-market regulators are investigating whether energy-market players are injecting false data into the marketplace to influence perceptions about crude-oil supply and demand, people familiar with the probe say.

Among other things, regulators are concerned that companies may be reporting inventory levels that benefit their own trading positions but that may not be accurate, people familiar with the regulators' thinking say.

A WSJ article describes an ongoing probe into trading practices.

Previously this blog speculated that oil price rises were due to all players acting to their mutual benefit. No conspiracy needed.

The potential for a targeted (and clearly illegal) scheme like the possible one described above is chilling, but not unusual, as commodity traders have repeatedly tried to alter pricing by controlling supply.

Busting the Electric Car Myth

2008-09-04T14:13:00.000-07:00

Nice article in Salon busting the "Electric cars pollute more at the generating plant" myth.

So the overall efficiency and emissions from the electric car are about twice as good. Because electricity from coal is about twice as dirty as the natural-gas electricity on which Tesla's numbers are based, the emissions from the electric car will, at worst, be comparable to the Prius'.

Positive coverage of electric cars continues to flow.

Nearly 75 percent would drive an electric car

2008-08-05T10:05:00.000-07:00

Nearly three-quarters of British motorists would consider driving an electric car, a survey has found.

Whether for "green" reasons or to escape congestion charges and the ever-rising cost of fuel, 71 percent of drivers would consider making the switch, it said on Friday.

- Reuters

Article concludes saying that charging infrastructure and "more models" need to be available. Indeed. Automakers have not yet found a way to build BEVs that bring similar levels of profit, either up front or "after the sale" in terms of maintenance.

Gasoline May Drop to $3.50/Gal

2008-08-04T14:53:00.000-07:00

Prices have dropped below $4 a gallon and could be headed toward $3.50, going by trading in wholesale futures markets. Any decline will be welcomed by Americans struggling under the burden of falling house prices, rising layoffs and stagnant wages. - Falling Oil Prices: The Downside Fortune

Fortune reports some analysts predicting a gasoline price drop to $3.50/gal.

Recall that Ford Motor executives previously mentioned an analysis of theirs, where consumer behavior changed at a price point of $3.50/gal. While hysteresis will play a part in the timing of consumer behavior changes here, its also clear that the pressure on automakers to produce electric and hybrid vehicles may soon lessen considerably.

Fuel Subsidies Overseas Take a Toll on U.S. - NYTimes

2008-07-27T20:30:00.001-07:00

Fuel Subsidies Overseas Take a Toll on U.S. - NYTimes.com: "The oil company BP, known for thorough statistical analysis of energy markets, estimates that countries with subsidies accounted for 96 percent of the world’s increase in oil use last year — growth that has helped drive prices to record levels.
In most countries that do not subsidize fuel, high prices have caused oil demand to stagnate or fall, as economic theory says they should. But in countries with subsidies, demand is still rising steeply, threatening to outstrip the growth in global supplies."

An earlier posting on this blog pointed out that, as oil and gasoline prices rose these products would "go upmarket" or in other words tend to be used by less price-sensitive, wealthier customers. Because oil is a global, fungible commodity this means that less wealthy nations would tend to reduce oil use first. However this is not happening because these countries are subsidizing prices heavily to keep fuel affordable. How much? China has spent $40 billion this year, and Malaysia 7.5% of its GDP.

Arguably the USA consumes a much larger fraction of production and in fact subsidizes consumption as well, but indirectly through tax and land use break, not to mention a rather large standing army in the Middle East guarding the oil fields.

The economy can work to reduce oil consumption if we gradually allow prices to rise.

Meanwhile, oil prices dropped significantly last week on news of reduced consumption and increasing stockpiles in the US... just in time for the end of summer and elections.

Technologists Vs. Skeptics: Stempel on EV-1

2008-07-27T10:03:00.000-07:00

Eyes on the Road - WSJ.com: "Forget Democrats vs. Republicans. When it comes to the future of cars, it's Technologists vs. Skeptics. Technologists believe that innovations in battery technology, hydrogen storage, cellulosic ethanol production, water-to-hydrogen systems, and lightweight vehicle design are right around the corner – thanks in part to the digital revolution of the late 20th Century."

Bob Stempel was the former GM engineer who rose to the top of the company and presided over it during the production of the EV-1. It was, in part, his technological optimism that kept the EV-1 project after it was annouced by the previous CEO during his departure. In "The Car That Could" the author described the near constant pressure to eliminate the program during the 1990s, a period in which gasoline was cheap and ueber profitable SUVs were rising in popularity.

Stempel repeats that EV-1 both did not meet its cost goals and never had a driving range competitive with conventional, gasoline-powered autos.

Let's consider these two points...

First, the range problem was largely solved by the "Gen II" NiMH batteries. At about 120 miles per nightly recharge the car was usable for all but the longest of daily drive plans.

Second, the cost issue could have been addressed in future, optimized versions of the car. Building 1500 copies and halting production doesn't really give a full picture of how low the cost could have gone.

Stempel may have been an optimist during his time at the top of GM, but I'm afraid he's fallen back to accepting the negative to excuse his own failure.

Oil Co. Profits Invested in Stocks, Not Production

2008-07-27T08:17:00.000-07:00

Customers getting pinched as oil profits go to investors - Reading Eagle Newspaper: "The five biggest international oil companies plowed about 55 percent of the cash they made from their businesses into stock buybacks and dividends last year, up from 30 percent in 2000 and just 1 percent in 1993, according to Rice University's James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy.

The percentage they spend to find new deposits of fossil fuels has remained flat for years, in the mid-single digits."

The media has cast about for a culprit in the radical rise of gasoline prices. The real answer is complex but based on one simple truth: action aligned by self-interest. In short, all players with influence over the price of oil and gasoline have consistently made choices to keep prices high. The quote above being a good example. Likewise commodity investors, OPEC and even the US government.

The basic problem: there's no product competive with crude oil. If you depend on it at all, you're stuck... and the vendors in its supply chain know that.

Hummer Needs to Get E-Flexible

2008-07-12T10:37:00.001-07:00

In a Washington Post opinion piece writer Matthew Debord laments the loss of GM's "swagger" if they sell or hybridize the Hummer brand. Leaving aside the inevitable Austin Powers "Mojo" jokes, its true that Hummer impressively bookends GM's product line. It would be a shame for GM to abandon Hummer without a fight.

The shape that fight would take is clear: build the strongest hybrid ever made. GM's "dual mode" system won't cut it. They would need to combine the E-Flex architecture from Volt with four "hub motors". The world's largest haul trucks, used in open pit mining operations, use a similar setup. Magazine ad: E-Flex Hummer posed in front of an enormous dump truck: "Little Brother".

While expensive, an E-Flex Hummer would have enormous towing power and "bookend" GM's hybrid product offering. It would also further differentiate them from Toyota.

Swagger isn't eliminated when you hybridize a Hummer, its how you do it, and GM has all the engineering needed.

Hybrid Sales Drop

2008-07-03T22:12:00.001-07:00

Reported US sales of hybrids took a 27% dive in June 2008 to 4,917 units from 34,300 units in June 2007 as Toyota continued to struggle with limited availability of the Prius. The Prius sold 11,765 units in June 2008, down 34% from June 2007. June 2008 had 24 selling days, compared to 27 in June 2007.
Total light-duty vehicle sales in the US dropped 18.3% by volume in June to 1,189,108 units, according to Autodata, with sales of passenger cars dropping 7.9% and sales of light trucks dropping 28.4%. Reported hybrid sales represent 2.1% of new vehicle sales for the month. - Reported Sales of Hybrids Down - Green Car Congress

While Toyota blames slowing Prius sales on battery shortages, the pattern fits the declining auto market of a recession. This is similar to the late 70s / 80s gas crises, when Americans switched to smaller and cheaper cars or simply stopped driving unless absolutely necessary.

If it persists, our oil price driven recession might convince some automakers that premium prices for hybrids are untenable to the car buying public. That, in turn, could close the door on advanced electric vehicle development (again).

The first two years of the next US Presidency will tell. The incoming administration is unlikely to keep the "Laissez-faire" approach of the current one. The public is also responding: US vehicle miles traveled have continued to drop month-to-month.

Better policy plus public response could turn this situation around. We're likely to have both within two years.

London Eliminates More EV Incentives

2008-07-01T19:40:00.001-07:00

It seems one of the first things on the agenda of the new conservative Mayor of London is dismantling the congestion charge scheme along with its electric vehicle incentives. Free parking is the latest item to be axed.

"The reasons for scrapping this incentive are plain daft," said Julian Wilford, Nice's co-founder. "The City's Department of Environmental Services has said that free parking encourages people to use electric cars; surely that's the point. Electric cars emit no air quality pollutants or carbon dioxide; they are far cleaner than conventional cars, buses and taxis. We think the City's decision has nothing to do with improving the environment and everything to do with short-term financial gain." - Telegraph.Co.UK - City Electric Car Ruling Barmy

Bashed by European automakers first for making access to central London more costly, corporate tempers blasted off for outer space when the charges were tied to CO2 emissions. This created disincentives for owning and driving large, expensive, profitable luxury vehicles in affluent central London, while at the same time creating incentives for small battery electric cars.

In the short time that the congestion charge incentives were in effect London became the hottest market for battery EVs in the world with three models available and others being prepped.

It was not to stand. Automakers, led by Porsche, took the city to court. This became moot when a new, right-wing mayor swept the left-wing administration that created the congestion charge out of office. The dismantling began almost immediately.

As the article points out other cities are starting free parking plans for EVs. We can hope this makes up for London's lack of support and keeps the region a hotbed of EV support.

Market Forces Rational Choice: Electric Cars

2008-06-30T12:13:00.001-07:00

There's mounting evidence that high oil prices are forcing a new rationality on automakers and the fuel market.

Ethanol brewers are operating at 50% capacity, with some companies going out of business. Not too surprising, given the rush to build and capture government subsidies that underlay the boom in the first place. With this we can see the air being let out of this balloon.

Mercedes is converting its A-Class fuel cell into a battery electric. That will be a very quick conversion from a "20+ year future" fuel cell prototype into a "next year or so" battery EV. Fuel cells may still have a future in vehicles, but for now its great to see near term progress.

Its a bit like the old P.T. Barnum claim of being able to fool people only some of the time. Similarly with a market economy, you can bend it with subsidies and shape it with taxation for a while, but when conditions change as much as the recent oil price rises, then smart choices become the only ones: battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids.

Auto Journalist to GM: Bring Back the EV-1!

2008-06-28T15:18:00.000-07:00

Electric car enthusiasts began by calling for GM to sell the existing EV-1s to the public, then just keep leasing them, and ultimately not to destroy them. Eventually they settled into calling for GM to restart production... again and again. Meanwhile auto journalists remarked favorably on the EV-1's performance, but pooh-pooh'ed the car for its limited range. Their comments toward groups trying to revive the EV-1 were, shall we say, less than charitable.

How times have changed.

Here's John McElroy, a "dyed in the wool" auto journalist calling for GM to start building the EV-1 again!

The car is already designed, engineered and developed. Why not milk more money out of your intellectual property? All they would have to do is dust off the CAD data. I doubt the tooling is lying around, so it would have to be duplicated. But GM could bring the EV1 back into production far faster than a typical new program would take. - Autoline on Autoblog with John McElroy - Autoblog

Sadly, as ABG points out, its been more than a decade since the EV-1 was designed for its limited production runs. The state of the art in microprocessors and power control electronics have advanced considerably, not to mention the availability of lithium-ion batteries. Unlike ABG however, I agree that the EV-1 could be put into production far faster than a typical new vehicle. Finally, there is also this little point:

Reviving the EV1 would be front page news around the world. It would be the perfect complement to the Volt, and put GM's "green cred" right up there with Toyota and Honda. Just as importantly, GM could finally shake that "Who Killed The Electric Car?" monkey off its back.

Indeed. So GM, how about "EV-2?"

Ex-Intel Head Pushes Electric Cars

2008-06-28T10:06:00.000-07:00

Leave it to the Silicon Valley guys: once they see at a problem, they'll dig in and find a solution... along with the business opportunities. Andy Grove, who ran giant chip maker Intel for years, has come to a conclusion:

'The most important thing I would like to do is light that almost half-assumed truth up in neon lights. Electricity in transportation has to be done. It is urgent. It is important that everything else is secondary,' Grove said during a recent phone interview with The Associated Press.

'The drumbeat of the electrical transportation is accelerating like nothing I've ever seen in my life,' Grove said.

- AP Interview: Ex-Intel head pushes electric cars -- chicagotribune.com

Ex-Chrysler CEO Lee Iacocca also saw electric vehicles as a major opportunity. His "E-Bike" and NEV (golf cart) companies failed after a few years. Oil was still cheap then, with SUVs near the height of their popularity. Riding an E-Bike or golf cart in traffic next to these behemoths is still unnerving. However, as drivers who don't need trucks for their daily driving abandon them, this will change.

The article mentions Mr. Grove's interest in retrofitting existing vehicles to use electric power, and includes praises for the hobbyists building conversions in their garages. He likens these people to the early computer hobbyists, quietly innovating at home after work.

Mr. Grove has superb connections to venture capital funding, at a time when new EV businesses are attracting major interest. Given his connection to the chip making industry one guess for where he would might this is advanced power control electronics and battery management systems. These are fast evolving parts of modern battery electric cars. Consider Tesla's battery system and the trouble they had with power control. These components are crucial for retrofit conversions.

But, overall its nice to hear someone of Andy Grove's stature more or less say "EV Does It"...

SC Ethanol Law Vexes Oil Companies

2008-06-27T11:57:00.000-07:00

Supporters say oil companies want to sell the gas pre-blended so they can keep federal ethanol credits, which can top 8 cents a gallon, and prevent competition from distributors who would pass some of those savings onto customers. - The Associated Press: SC passes ethanol law challenged by oil companies

Here we have a tug of war between refiners and distributors for control of an 8 cent per gallon ethanol credit. By selling gasoline "preblended" with ethanol refiners receive the money. If distributors did the blending then they would get it.

In any case its doubtful distributors will be any more inclined than refiners to "pass some of those savings on to the consumers".

Global Hybrid vs Diesel Nationalism

2008-06-26T10:21:00.000-07:00

'The Prius is shipped half way around the world. It has two engines, produced in an environmentally-costly manufacturing process.
“Meanwhile, here in Erdington we are manufacturing an award-warning, prestige green vehicle.”
Mr Austin added: “We could be using Birmingham-built cars with the cleanest diesel
engines in the world.”
- MPs slam hybrid cars in favour of buying British - Birmingham Post

As has happened on the US, British politicians are waving the flag over concerns that too many dang foreign hybrids are taking over the parking lots of the houses of parliment. The humble Prius is singled out for particular scorn.

The article indicates an argument path something like this: "Jaguar makes an award winning diesel, the Prius build process requires more resources than a simpler car (like a diesel)." Of course this ignores the studies which show that a car's travelling CO2 output far overshadows that of its construction. It also raises the delicate question of how "green" the Jaguar XJ diesel actually is. Bear in mind that while the XJ is an incredibly well built and engineered car, its still a 3000+ lb monster costing 65,000 Euros in its base configuration.

So, tell me again what these politicians are arguing for? Is it a greener car? Or a more luxurious one?

Cross Border Gasoline Arbitrage

2008-06-25T11:35:00.000-07:00

As gasoline prices rise ever higher, some drivers have discovered an alternative to runaway fuel inflation in the U.S.: subsidized gas just minutes away in Mexico.

With fuel prices on the rise, some drivers head to Mexico, where they are able to save as much as $2 a gallon -- a way cheaper alternative to gas prices approaching $5 a gallon in California. WSJ's Joel Millman reports. (June 24)

Gasoline is selling for six pesos per liter across the border in Tijuana, which works out to about $2.50 a gallon, way cheaper than gas prices approaching $5 a gallon in San Diego County. Diesel fuel is cheaper still -- $2.19 a gallon.

- Fill 'er Up: Gas Is Cheap in Tijuana, So Californians Buy Big Fuel Tanks - WSJ.com

The article goes on to describe a business in Southern California specialized in fitting extra large gasoline tanks in trucks expressly to take advantage of this.

This underscores one of the problems with "engineering" the "free market". Overly high taxes or subsidies on a product encourages "black market" distribution. A classic example is transporting alcohol and cigarettes (illegally) across state and national borders to avoid taxation. There are further, and more complex price effects as suppliers respond to these sales.

Pemex previously kept border station prices close to those in the USA to avoid this problem, but lately that practice was stopped as a political sop. The subsidy is costing the Mexican taxpayer $20 billion.

No Discount for Sour Crude

2008-06-23T11:36:00.000-07:00

[Photo credit]

A grand meeting was just held in Saudi Arabia to discuss high oil prices. While mostly a public relations exercise, one interesting fact emerged that's not getting much press.

Most of the new oil capacity Saudi Arabia is offering to the world is "sour" or "high sulphur" crude oil. But, refiners aren't buying it not so much because they can't use it, but because Saudi Arabia isn't offering it at enough of a discount relative to "sweet" or "low sulphur" crude oil.

Given that most new oil fields are producing this kind of high sulphur oil, some of the tightness in the oil markets is surely due to this dispute.

How soon before we hear politicians specifically asking that high sulphur oil be discounted?

Fast Charge Sharing for Fun and Profit

2008-06-21T10:15:00.001-07:00

Aeon Corp in Japan is in talks to install one hour chargers in their shopping malls.

As previously mentioned on this blog, large parking decks are an ideal location for smart-grid charging installations. Large amounts of space are available on the roof for solar panels, with sunlight at its strongest during the middle of the day when many people are shopping. As mentioned, a parking deck covered with solar panels and filled with electric cars on a smart grid is a powerful, buffered energy system.

Aeon proposes one hour charging at their locations. This could mean up to 20 KW service at each charge point. Installing electrical capacity to service even 10 fast charging spaces could be very expensive indeed.

An alternative idea might be to share charge between cars in the parking deck. That is, if your EV has 90% charge and you're willing to sell 30% of it, that could be used (locally, within the parking deck) to fast-charge other cars.

So, in short, a smart grid isn't just between large power companies and individual cars. It could also be useful car to car within large parking decks. As such, it may help reduce the size of the connection to the electrical grid, making fast charging facilities cheaper to build.

Offshore Oil: Profits the Real Issue

2008-06-21T09:54:00.001-07:00

Interesting how a crisis is once again being used by politicians to make hay and by corporate interests to engineer future profits.

While the US should authorize offshore drilling under a reasonable set of environmental protections, the argument here isn't high gasoline prices versus pristine beaches. The real item being quietly horsetraded is a huge source of long term oil company revenue.

I'm not against corporations making money, but beware the precedent. In the Gulf of Mexico "small error" on the part of a Bush administration official reduced the taxpayer's share of production profits to a small fraction of what was intended.

So, license the offshore drilling rights, but fix the revenue sharing provisions in the contracts. ...and don't expect any effect on gasoline prices soon. Even if drilling starts today it will be 5-10 years before that oil hits the market. Imagine what it will sell for then.

Do You Like Volt and Hate Th!nk?

2008-06-19T17:14:00.000-07:00

I just received an anonymous comment to the post about the Th!nk Ox. It is fun enough that I thought I'd give it an entire blog entry. The comment:

Gee, what a puzzle. On the one hand I can spend $25,000 for a phone booth rolling coffin that can't travel more than about 50 miles and still get home, or I can buy a Chevy Volt, a car that I would like to be seen driving and owning, and it will do everything this Think can in terms of avoiding gasoline and doesn't require me to buy, maintain and pay insurance and find parking for 2 cars. Anyone who buys a Think has only bought half the cars they need. Now why do I get the feeling that the Think is not really all that cheap? - Anonymous

Ok Anonymous. Nice to hear from you!

The original post referred to an article about Th!nk's Ox. But, the $25,000 price in the comment indicates the Th!nk City (a much smaller car). Bob Lutz claims Volt will sell for $40,000. Comparing Volt to "City" is like comparing Camry to Yaris.

Smaller EVs like City are positioned as light duty, around town cars. If you only have one car in your family then Volt probably makes more sense. But as a second car for commuting in town you may spend less money, park more easily, and pay less for maintenance on a "City".

Finally Mr. Anonymous Volt fan, take heed: Th!nk may have a range extender option for Ox, just like Volt.

Th!nk Ox Electric Car Headed for Success?

2008-06-19T11:01:00.000-07:00

Ox is a preview of Think's next-generation production vehicle, due out in 2011. Roughly the size of a Toyota (TM) Prius, the Ox can travel between 125 and 155 miles before needing a recharge, and zips from zero to 60 miles per hour in about 8.5 seconds. Its lithium-ion batteries can be charged to 80% capacity in less than an hour, and slender solar panels integrated into the roof power the onboard electronics. Inside, the hatchback includes a bevy of high-tech gizmos such as GPS navigation, a mobile Internet connection, and a key fob that lets drivers customize the car's all-digital dashboard. - The Electric Car Lives: Business Week

The article emphasizes the car's 'clean Scandinavian design' and the company's clean production process. Tempers the "gee whiz" by noting that they need to sell about 20,000 units a year to be profitable, while an analyst from Edmund's adds that there is only a microscopic market for alternative cars of any type.

Its true that sustaining sales beyond early adopters is always tough. Examples abound in niche vehicles like the Chrysler PT Cruiser, etc. However, in Th!nk's case the adoption model looks more discovery driven (per the Prius) than it does image or style driven. Prius initially appealed to green conscious people, with help from its smooth driving characteristics and tech-appeal. Now, it has a simpler, raw appeal of higher MPG in a "right size" form factor.

Th!nk Ox could ride a similar wave, with initial appeal driven by green + tech appeal with some cost advantage. If gasoline prices increase further, or problems become shortages, popularity of electics like the Ox would blow through the roof.

VC dollars into fast battery charging

2008-06-18T22:21:00.000-07:00

Chrysalix Energy has led a multimillion-dollar investment in a Dutch-based maker of ultrafast battery chargers aimed at electric cars and plug-in hybrids. Epyon B.V., a spinout from the Delft University of Technology, has a 'supercharge' technology it says can reduce the charge time of lithium-ion battery packs up to 20-fold. - Clean Break :: VC dollars now chasing fast battery charging

Looks like someone's getting the message: Chrysalix Energy, a VC firm, is investing in Epyon B.V. a company with fast battery charging technology. Still looks more practical than battery swapping (per Project Better Place).

Question: does the Epyon technology include an energy buffer? If not, their "solution" will be limited to installation near high capacity electric service.

Big Oil Back into Iraq

2008-06-18T21:44:00.000-07:00

The no-bid contracts are unusual for the industry, and the offers prevailed over others by more than 40 companies, including companies in Russia, China and India. The contracts, which would run for one to two years and are relatively small by industry standards, would nonetheless give the companies an advantage in bidding on future contracts in a country that many experts consider to be the best hope for a large-scale increase in oil production. - Deals With Iraq Are Set to Bring Oil Giants Back - NYTimes.com

With oil prices still above $130/bbl how could anyone object to the US oil majors helping the Iraqis by "rebuilding their decrepit oil infrastructure". It also seems wise to conclude these deals before the next, very likely Democratic, administration takes office. Fewers questions will be asked all around.

Its a culmination of some sort, but sadly one that's not clearly connected to an increase in stability or support for the average Iraqi.

A Three-Wheel Dream That Died at Takeoff - Buckminster Fuller and the Dymaxion Car

2008-06-14T20:20:00.000-07:00

Fuller said the Dymaxion was not even really a car.
“I knew everyone would call it a car,” he told Kenner in the 1960s, but really it was “the land-taxiing phase of a wingless, twin orientable jet stilts flying device.” The jets he wanted had not been invented in 1933, he said, so he simply used a Ford V-8 instead. Such compromises rarely bothered Fuller, who always saw the Dymaxion, as he saw much of the world, as a kind of provisional prototype, a mere sketch, of the glorious, eventual future. - Buckminster
Fuller and the Dymaxion Car - NYTimes.com

Indeed Mr. Fuller... indeed!

EV Fast Charging a Fantasy?

2008-06-11T17:55:00.000-07:00

“If you buy into the idea that a plug-in hybrid should be more like an EV and have a 30-40 mi range, then we’re talking serious kW to charge the battery,” he said. And talk about ‘fast’ battery charging simply pegs his personal voltmeter.

“It drives me crazy,” Reinert exclaimed. “If you’ve got a 25 kW/h battery pack and you want to fast-charge it in 10 min, that would require an inrush of 100 kW. As reference, your home is sized for about 10 kW. Sure, you only needed that power for 10 min, but you needed 100 kW."

- SAE - Automotive Engineering International Online

Indeed Mr. Reinert speaks truth here. But its surprising that, as someone who leads a great engineering organization like Toyota, he's not thinking out of the box very much. There are at least two ways that fast-charging has more leeway than Mr. Reinert's criticism implies.

First, its not necessary to define "fast charging time" as "equal to gasoline fill up". Indeed, with fuel costs rising quickly we'll likely be surprised by consumer flexibility and ingenuity. Consider: if you only need a 50% recharge to get home and can wait 20 minutes a "fast" charge only requires 25kW. Second, the power need not be drawn directly from the mains. It can be buffered.

Here's the scenario. Imagine first, that fast-charging is considered a "premium service" at a facility similar to current gasoline stations. Second, picture a capacitor to buffer that "fast charging" built in a trench about the size of an underground gasoline tank (note this is only example size, not proposing reuse of existing underground gasoline tanks).

A station would continuously "trickle charge" the buried capacitor tank at all times. When a vehicle arrivies to fast-charge it would draw down from the "tank", not directly from the mains.

Two points here: fast-charge could be a premium service, and second, at a fixed location the size of a buffer capacitor is not constrained the way it is on board a car. It may be possible to build it in a large insulated pit underground (potentially very large) using cheap materials.

Mr. Reinert should take the time to talk to his engineers about fast-charging, and reconsider consumer flexibility in the face of high fuel prices.

LG Chem May Lease GM's Volt Battery

2008-06-10T12:04:00.000-07:00

Patil said LG Chem and GM were talking about arrangements to lower the initial cost of the battery by leasing them to the Volt buyer, a step that would lower the cost of the car. - Guardian - UK

Battery electric car enthusiasts have long advocated leasing of battery packs to reduce the initial cost of the vehicles. This has pros and cons however. The upside is clear: the upfront cost of the car is lower, and buying "battery" as a "service" it provides a continuous stream of revenue to the supplier.

The downside could lie in being tied to a single supplier for that battery. After all, these won't be the type you can find blister packed at the corner hardware store.

I strongly support the "leased battery" approach, but consumers should be on guard for contract terms keeping a third party from supplying an alternative battery.

After all, competition is the key to progress and cost control in a free market.

Carlos Ghosn Defends Electric Cars

2008-06-08T11:39:00.000-07:00

Then he adds:

“You tell your readers this — a hybrid is just an optimisation of a gasoline engine, putting motor and engine together, more expensive, and still emitting CO2. An electric car is zero emission.”

Apart from the CO2 produced making the electricity.

“Not if it’s made by nuclear or solar or wind.”

He smiles tightly. You can see he loves to argue.

- Carlos Ghosn: Powering ahead regardless - Times Online

Especially with interviewers from snarky conservative newspapers ;-) Go Carlos!

Seriously this is the first time I have seen a major auto exec bother to defend against this classic "it just shifts the emissions elsewhere" counter argument. It may also reflect how the conservative media's tired positions on topics like efficiency and global warming are losing steam. These arguments are related, since acceptance of global warming drives reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in electricity generation, which strengthens the position for EVs.

How long before conservative media outlets switch to heralding the emergence of battery EVs as another miraculous response of the free market to high oil prices? Well, it is but the energy and auto markets are so highly subsidized or regulated that they're hardly "free".

Costly Crude

2008-06-08T10:57:00.000-07:00

JARED DIAMOND: Well, there certainly are commodities that the world has come into conflict over, and the prime example is what we're talking about, oil. Let's think of the cause of World War II in the Pacific.

The immediate cause of war between Japan and the United States was the oil embargo that President Roosevelt imposed on Japan at a time when Japan, not an oil-producing country, had only a year-and-a-half of oil reserves left.

Japan had the choice of acceding to Roosevelt's demands, namely withdrawing from their military adventures in China and Southeast Asia, or securing their own oil fields, which they did, starting with the raid at Pearl Harbor and then World War II, Japan's attempt to secure oil supplies for themselves.

So there already we've had the bloodiest war in recent American history fought over oil.

- Online NewsHour: Conversation Costly Crude with Jared Diamond June 3, 2008 PBS

Jared Diamond, professor of geography at the University of California, Los Angeles. He's the author of the best-selling books, "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed," and, "Guns, Germs and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies," which won the Pulitzer Prize.

Swap battery for Recharge or Upgrade?

2008-06-03T13:05:00.000-07:00

The Think City, when it hits the market in the U.S., will be equipped with three optional, high-powered batteries. U.S. consumers will be able to choose from what Think describes as a 'sodium battery' system with active materials composed of sodium, nickel and iron, as well as from two types of lithium-ion batteries from two U.S. companies: A123 Systems of Watertown, Mass., and Enerdel. Enerdel is the joint-venture battery company owned 80.5% by Ener1 inc. and 19.5% by auto-component supplier Delphi Corp. - WSJ.com

Article on the re-emergence of Th!nk in the USA, its backing by a major venture capital firm, and a bit of history.

The consumer battery pack option is interesting. Considering the pack is leased it may even be possible to swap packs if more range is needed. THIS is a sensible pack swapping strategy: a larger pack can be leased by the consumer and swapped into the vehicle. Contrast this with the "Project Better Place" concept of "swapping instead of recharging" which is problemmatic in too many ways.

This changes pack swapping from a potentially huge cost center (fixed costs of recharged packs sitting around in the Better Place scheme) to a potentially large profit center (battery lease upgrades in the Th!nk scheme).

Get get 'em Th!nk.

Now: where's the fast charging support?

GM closing 4 truck and SUV plants

2008-06-03T09:49:00.000-07:00

General Motors is closing four truck and SUV plants in the U.S., Canada and Mexico, affecting 10,000 workers, as surging fuel prices hasten a dramatic shift to smaller vehicles.

CEO Rick Wagoner said Tuesday before the automaker's annual meeting in Delaware the plants to be idled are in Oshawa, Ontario; Moraine, Ohio; Janesville, Wis.; and Toluca, Mexico. He also said the iconic Hummer brand will be reviewed and potentially sold or revamped.

- Yahoo! News

The shift to smaller cars is in full swing. First the market spoke, with consumers abandoning larger vehicles in response to gasoline prices. That needed to be sustained for some time before US automakers believed it was a permanent shift and not just a momentary spike. Seems they believe it now, and production is being altered to suit. I'm still shocked that GM hasn't been more aggressive about putting all wheel electric drives into their large trucks and SUVs. Likely their internal analyses show the product would be too expensive for the current market of truck/SUV buyers. If they're cost-conscious we'll continue to see the late 1970s auto downsizing scenario play out.

The shift is particularly hard on GM and the other US automakers due to the way they optimized their profit-making around large trucks and SUVs in the 1990s. While the strategy produced great margins for just over a decade, the downside is the large capital investment needed to retool for smaller cars.

Or is it?

For years analysts have complained that automakers have too much spare production capacity. By closing these four (North American) plants GM accomplishes several things, including reducing the size of its relatively expensive US labor pool as well as knocking down over capacity. In other words, less retooling. Plants making large vehicles will be discarded.

Ford: $3.50 / gallon is where consumers drew the line

2008-05-23T09:51:00.000-07:00

Mulally said that the $3.50 level was when buying shifts 'really started to move.' Ford's U.S. pickup sales numbers dropped from 14.1 percent of its retail sales in 2007 to 13 percent in early 2008 to 11 percent in April to just 9 percent so far in May. SUV sales dropped as well (from 8.4 to 6.8 to 5.2 to 4.4 percent in the same time frames). Looking to the future, Ford is estimating that U.S. gas prices will sit somewhere between $3.75 and $4.25 a gallon for the rest of this year and next. - AutoblogGreen

Its been cheaper to run a battery electric car by recharging, than a gasoline car by refilling, for the last few years. Of course, battery EVs cost more upfront and have less range (though enough for daily driving). Ford has discovered the point at which consumers changed buying behavior ($3.50/gallon), but the next question is: at what price will they push seriously toward alternatives like hybrids or even battery EVs?

As gasoline prices push consumers through the same behaviors seen in the 1970s (first drive less, then buy smaller cars, etc.) it will be interesting to see what turns out differently.

Bartlett drops opposition to Arctic refuge oil drilling

2008-05-22T21:57:00.000-07:00

Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, a conservative Republican with an unusually green reputation, said Thursday he will co-sponsor a bill to allow oil and natural gas drilling in part of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) after years of opposition.

Bartlett, R-Md., cited skyrocketing crude oil prices in announcing his support for the American Energy Independence and Price Reduction Act, which would send all of the revenue from drilling leases in the refuge’s coastal strip to alternative and renewable energy programs.

“I have resisted drilling in ANWR because I believe that these oil reserves are like money in the bank that is yielding huge interest rates,” Bartlett said in a press release.

“Today, with oil at $134 per barrel, there is obviously no surplus energy or capital to invest in alternatives.”

- The Herald-Mail

It is inevitable that when oil prices rise too far, extracting "black gold" from previously taboo locations will come back to the negotiating table.

I believe we should allow drilling in the arctic, and offshore, but with adequete profit sharing to the regions and third party monitoring to ensure pollution control rules are followed and fines assessed for violations.

We might as well start planning to do it right, because the longer we wait the more influence corporations will have to push legislation to "get oil any which way". This could discard many of the rules that keep our shorelines and natural places clean.

In other words: I don't believe the populace has the willpower to avoid drilling if prices go much higher.

$12 Gas and Rationing? Possible...

2008-05-22T21:49:00.000-07:00

Not that the mainstream media would ever try to panic us, but this story just appeared on CNBC:

'The prices that we're paying at the pump today are, I think, going to be 'the good old days,' because others who watch this very closely forecast that we're going to be hitting $12 and $15 a gallon, and then, after that, when world oil production goes into decline, we're going to talk about rationing,' Robert Hirsch, Management Information Services Senior Energy Advisor, said on CNBC's 'Squawk Box.' 'In other words, not only are we going to be paying high prices and have considerable economic problems, but in addition to that, we're not going to be able to get the fuel when we want it.' - CNBC.com

Of course, shows like "Squawk Box" are designed for exactly this kind of story. Drop a few extreme quotes and watch the viewership numbers light up. But what other motivations are moving this idea onto television?

First, who is Dr. Robert L. Hirsch? Currently, he's the Senior Energy Program Advisor for Science Applications International. SAIC is described as a leading technology company whose primary clients are (wait for it) the defense industry and intelligence community. Hmm. Dr. Hirsch is the author of a number of studies related to "Peak Oil" production, and how it will impact society.

There's no effort to cast aspersions here, but let's be clear: the Peak Oil concept, after sitting on the fringes of public discussion for more than a decade, is finally hitting the the big time at consulting firms like SAIC. Just a few months ago Daniel Yergin's company Cambridge Research Associates released a very expensive report claiming that Peak Oil was bunk. I'm sure its sold out among the oil company crowd, most likely as a stocking stuffer for their buddies in Congress.

So, what I see here is another in an ongoing series of attempts to gain the "conceptual high ground" in the political discourse over how to respond to diminishing oil supplies. Will it happen quickly? Slowly?

But most importantly: who will shape the public policy through which new fortunes will be made...

GM's EV-1: God Knows What Might Have Been...

2008-05-20T11:32:00.000-07:00

Nissan and Mitsubishi (among others) have announced their full battery electric cars will begin sales in 2010 or so. Some recent articles made claim to these being "firsts" of various sorts. Untrue. Sadly untrue. GM introduced its EV starting point, the EV-1 back in 1998, in response to the California EV mandate.

[All quotes from Waldo Proffitt - HeraldTribune.com]

General Motors came back with a double-barreled response. Barrel One was to speed production of a battery-powered car. Barrel Two was an all-out attack on the zero-emission edict in the courts, regulatory agencies and in public perception.

Barrel Two eventually fired the fatal shot, but not before GM had produced and leased -- not sold -- about 900 cars with the designation EV1. It was an eye-appealing two-seater. Most of the people lucky enough to be able to lease one fell in love with it.

They even began the slow process of technical improvement, upgrading from Lead-Acid to Nickel Hydride batteries. It was the best car I ever drove, despite its relatively short range of 120 miles.

God knows what GM might have accomplished if it had stuck with its electric cars. It might even still be the No.1 auto manufacturer in the world, might even have made money last year, and that's not even to mention what it might have done to hold down the price of gasoline and help clean up our air.

Now, five years after it finished trashing all the EV1s, General Motors says it hopes to finish design and development by 2010 of its new electric car -- the Chevrolet volt -- which will actually be a hybrid, and will leave GM about where Toyota was 10 years ago.

Corbin's Dead Sparrow

2008-05-15T10:55:00.000-07:00

Back in 1998 I leased a GM EV-1. The only way for me to get that car was to take over the lease from the widow of a previous owner. As I got to the end of the EV-1 lease I was looking around around for my next commuter EV.

The Corbin Sparrow looked like a possibility. I checked it out at a showroom in Glendale. Reasonably priced three wheeler, short range (about 40 miles) but far enough for my purpopses. A bit of room in the back for groceries. Just needed to wait for them to start production.

There was an initial story about the car's first drivetrain being prepared by a German company. It was to be an AC motor with regenerative braking. Apparently the test units failed so badly the company was ousted from the development program. Corbin went back to a DC motor and controller without regenerative braking. Two different vendors then tried to build the motor controller and battery charging systems. If I recall a third company built the final unit.

Along the way production was started and stopped, then indefinately delayed. I also read about the problems owners were having. The charging system and electrics were a mess. Overall the technology in the Sparrow was far behind the EV-1, though comparison is a bit silly.

Finally, Corbin's Sparrow-building division went bankrupt as a result of one of the investors' action. Years later the assets showed up at Myers Motors, with the car renamed as the NMG. While they'd done quite a bit of re-engineering the shine was off the apple...

Near as I can tell they didn't properly engineer the car, work out all the kinks, before starting production. That was forced by tight, "need to start selling" deadlines resulting from being undercapitalized. The technology used in the Sparrow was primitive but appropriate for the time: lead-acid batteries, non-regenerative braking DC motor, simple charging system.

So, what happened at Corbin? Underestimated the cost to fully develop the car. Other opinions out there? Make a comment.

Land Developers to Push Mass Transit Links?

2008-05-15T10:43:00.000-07:00

$120+ oil has gotten the attention of the real estate development community. A number of academics and some studies are showing that housing that requires long commutes is dropping in value. Opinions vary, but more are swinging toward the decline of suburban sprawl. Could that be stopped?

There seem to be two options for real estate development. One is "New Urbanism" which would require a pre-planned town core for large groups of tract homes. While sensible, this is complex and costly, and has never been done as a successful retrofit into existing developments. Possibility two, would be to build mass-transit to nearby city cores for large suburban tracts. This one scales well, can be done relatively cheaply, but does require Americans to give up their cars. We'll need to ignore phrases like "pry my cold dead fingers from the steering wheel" before this one happens. But perhaps oil prices will go high enough to do that?

Dedicated right-of-way for buses is probably the cheapest, though we're likely to see competitive, cost-concious real estate developers try anything to keep selling land far away from cities.

GM's sales focus to get 'dramatic redesign'

2008-05-14T11:18:00.000-07:00

'We've been promoting our trucks more than we should have,' Mike DiGiovanni, the company's top sales analyst, told a bankers' conference in Warren. 'We're going to shift our marketing toward fuel economy and hybrids.' - GM's sales focus to get 'dramatic redesign' as gas soars

Finally seeing the handwriting on the wall? Recent articles have painted the picture of GM's 30% drop in full-size SUV sales with finality, in effect saying "at last they get it". Actually, the fat lady didn't sing until now, when GM has finally changed its marketing and advertising budget to support sales of smaller and more efficient vehicles.

The article goes on to point out an interesting paradox: that while asian carmakers have a market leading green image, GM's product line, compared vehicle by vehicle, is reasonably competitive. The question is can they change their corporate image enough to make that clear?

Now, GM is looking to make the case that it's about more than Escalades, Suburbans and Hummers. The automaker will roll out 14 new passenger cars and crossovers in the next 18 months, DiGiovanni said. It's made some headway with the well-received new Chevrolet Malibu, the new Saturn Aura sedan, the redesigned Pontiac Vibe and its trio of large crossovers.

"We have a foundation to really start promoting these vehicles," he said. "We're as well-positioned as anybody."

Midwest Puts EVs in Perspective

2008-05-14T11:05:00.000-07:00

Today’s electric cars will go about 100 miles before needing a recharge.

“Right now, electric cars are not made to drive to Enid — that’s why God built the Lincoln Continental.”

- Terre Haute News - Biopetroleum, electricity could power future vehicles

Seems people in the midwest are starting to understand the value of electric vehicles and their place in the grand scheme of things ;-)

EV Startup Barrier Now $200 Million?

2008-05-14T11:01:00.000-07:00

If Fisker comes out with a mass-market car before Tesla, Tesla might be relegated to a low-volume, high-dollar niche manufacturer, without the drive of car nuts like Bob Lutz. At that point, GM or someone else will probably buy Tesla, although GM might not need to since they are about to launch a rival of their own, the Volt.

.... Fundamentally, the real lesson with Tesla is not that it's possible to build an electric car, but that the barrier to entry to the car market has been lowered to $200 million, which is almost VC money. And that's a revolution.

- Tesla vs Fisker - The
battle for the electric car... AlwaysOn

[Always On is a VC startup news magazine.] IMHO the prediction above is predicated on large automakers not competing in this market for a few years. The author almost says it himself: if GM releases the Volt sedan (and that is still a big "if") that would relegate both of these startups to "high-dollar niche manufacturer".

Large automakers seem to be making battery and range-extender EV announcements weekly. The analogy to the 1970s small car invasion from asia has caught on. The concern is that these upstarts will both define and dominate a new auto market, as small cars did during the last gasoline price/supply crises in the 1970s.

With game-changing competition arising from both startups and established companies, there's likely to be an entertaining battle ahead. The idea that venture capital could support part of that competition is indeed revolutionary.

The 3 Wheeler Loophole

2008-05-11T12:07:00.000-07:00

News has been breaking about a new battery electric 3 wheeler called the "Triac" from Green Vehicles. Good to see this even though its incredibly difficult to start a new car company. Its tough because the auto industry's products are highly regulated for safety, emissions, as well as being a prime target of consumer lawsuits. But where there's a will there's a way...

In most states there's a loophole in existing law which allows a three wheeler to be regulated as a motorcycle. Specifically this means lower standards for crash testing vs. even the smallest of passenger cars. What this avoids is the high "barrier to entry" for new car company startups. Recent examples of vehicles developed for this loophole are Corbin Motors Sparrow (defunct, assets transferred to Myers Motors as the NMG), the Zap Xebra, Aptera and now Green Vehicles Triac.

The "Holy Grail" being sought by these "Men of La Mancha" is the affordable electric commuter car. Theory says this should be an enormous market, since most people travel less than 10 miles to get to work every day, and EVs are cheap to recharge, this means there should be a sweet spot in the market for a small, light, short range EV.

At least, that's the theory...

In a follow-on post I'll look at how these companies succeeded or failed, and how technology is changing the 3 wheeler game.

Rockefellers Gain Muscle in Exxon Fight

2008-05-11T11:53:00.000-07:00

RiskMetrics Group has joined the Rockefeller family to support separating the CEO and Chairman positions of Exxon, currently held by Rex Tillerson, to increase independent oversight of management.

The Rockefellers are trying to break the company free of what it considers a stodgy management structure that has failed to plan properly for changes in future energy markets.

Some family members said they are concerned that Exxon Mobil is too focused on short-term gains from soaring oil prices and should do more to invest in cleaner technology for the future. They argue that separating the leadership roles will better position the company to face future challenges.

- Rockefellers Get More Muscle in Exxon Fight - AP

The history of the oil industry is one of radical ups and downs (see "The Prize" by Yergin). We're clearly in the midst of a radical upswing now, but with great potential for a collapse as consumers push hard to reduce oil use.

The investors of the Rockefeller family would clearly prefer Exxon use some part of its profits to invest in the next energy paradigms, rather than artificially inflating the value of current ones.

Cassandra's Curse: How Club of Rome was Demonized

2008-05-11T10:52:00.000-07:00

The Club of Rome report "The Limits to Growth" is one of those books most people have only heard about through the opinions of others. During periods of economic expansion its been largely vilified as a call for "world government" or worse. When there is a downturn, it gets a second look.

An article here in The Oil Drum analyzes changing opinions toward the report. Next to reading the 30 year update to the original report, this is worth your time.

Autocar - Nissan to make range of EVs

2008-05-02T14:09:00.000-07:00

Nissan boss Carlos Ghosn has committed his company to becoming a “global leader” in the production of affordable electric vehicles.

Speaking at the Nissan 360 event in Portugal, where journalists are able to drive Nissan's entire global line-up, Ghosn said that the development of a range of electric-only cars was at the heart of Nissan's plan to increase sales in emerging markets.

“Fifteen years ago the environment was not an issue,” he said. “Now it is unavoidable. When oil hit $30 a barrel we were told it was a disaster; now we are looking at a future of permanently high energy costs.” He added that at the current oil price of $120 a barrel, justifying an electric vehicle development project was “very easy”.
- Autocar - Nissan to make range of EVs

Quite a turnaround here. Just a few years ago Ghosn was repeatedly quoted saying that hybrids simply did not make sense and would never break out of a niche market. While this was something of a "corporate line" among all the automakers except Toyota, Nissan continued to repeat it the longest.

As the longest holdout it likely makes sense that Nissan would make the biggest U-turn, now not only producing its own hybrid system but also becoming a leading champion of mass-market battery EVs.

Time, oil and gasoline prices will tell...

Evolution of Horsepower vs. MPG

2008-05-01T10:04:00.000-07:00

Chart of Horsepower, Efficiency and car model year.

In the article:

From about 1975 through 1987, federal standards prompted massive and surprisingly rapid improvements in fuel economy. Cars designers focused on nimbleness and efficiency over raw power, and the fuel savings were enormous. But since the late 1980s, most engineering advances have focused on making cars more muscular, and fuel efficiency has taken a back seat. - Sightline Daily (formerly Tidepool)

As an argument against CAFE automakers repeatedly say that MPG has vastly improved since the 1970s, while neglecting to mention a lack of progress after the mid-1980s.

Double Whammy - G.M. Posts $3.3 Billion Loss

2008-04-30T10:35:00.000-07:00

G.M. Posts $3.3 Billion Loss - New York Times: Even with the trouble it has had in the United States, G.M.’s continuing operations would have made money if not for a $589 million loss at its finance arm, G.M.A.C., which had been a consistent source of profits in recent years. The loss was attributable to G.M.A.C.’s home mortgage unit, which lost $859 million.

GM, more than any other US manufacturer (except perhaps Peterbilt) is associated with large, macho trucks. They have continued to hook their success on sales of these large vehicles in spite of repeated signs that sales are shifting downsize to crossovers and cars.

To some degree the company has been able to keep its shareholder returns treading water with profits from its financing arm GMAC. However, the mortgage crisis has negated that as well.

GM now faces a "land war in asia" scenario where its being hit from all sides: payments to failed parts making divisions like Delphi, too much dependence on large vehicle sales, mortgage division in trouble. Add to this the fact that rival Ford has announced a profit.

Clearly, GM needs a new set of hands on its steering wheel.

Exxon Too Specialized?

2008-04-30T09:45:00.000-07:00

This morning NPR reported the Rockefeller family objects to Exxon's funding of research to discredit the science linking global warming to fossil fuel CO2 emissions. For the last few years Exxon shareholders have repeatedly attempted to vote measures against these tactics and for a more aggressively addressing CO2 emissions. The company has successfully stopped all of these, and while shareholder votes rarely succeed a few have come surprisingly close.

Shockingly Exxon does not see this as a business opportunity. If Exxon used some fraction of its massive profits to develop the definitive technology for significantly reducing CO2 emissions they would both create a large income stream and go from "zero to hero" in public opinion. But they do not. Instead they have sold off their "alternative energy" investments and funded anti-global warming researchers.

The reason is that Exxon sees "no business like the oil business" in terms of ROI. This is a no-brainer considering the companies are coddled by a century of lawmaking that provides tax breaks and subsidies. The utter dependence of our transport infrastructure on their products helps as well. Head of Exxon Rex Tillerson is a no-imagination CEO who could only function in this environment. He can act broadly as a line manager for the well defined activity of resource extraction, without the distraction of real competition outside of the industry's "old boy network".

If real alternatives gain support among the public, as they are in this period of high gasoline prices and increasing oil company arrogance, the struts of political and economic suport propping up companies like Exxon on their high pedestal will be kicked out, revealing nothing of general, internal value, rather like the emperor without clothes.

Oil companies would become victims of their own, very sharp specialization.

[Another article on this from the Times-Online site - Ron]

Deutsche Bank: Electric Cars Could Wipe Gas Cars off the Map

2008-04-29T11:14:00.000-07:00

A new Deutsche Bank report, exclusive to the Globes newspaper, has analyzed the Project Better Place electric car leasing business plan.

Deutsche Bank crunched the numbers and found this. It will cost no more than seven cents to drive one mile under the Project Better Place scheme, including battery and electricity costs. Compare that with 24 cents per mile in Europe in a gas-powered car, and 15 to 20 cents per mile in America.

- Deutsche Bank: Electric Cars Could Wipe Gas Cars off the Map SolveClimate.com

The trick is that the PBP business model depends on a pure leasing scheme:

A typical contract mentioned in the bank’s report would cover a year or more, and would cost $550 per month. For that price, customers would get 18,000 miles annually, the battery, electricity for each recharge, and the car.

A constant cost lease gives consumers no wiggle room to reduce their transportation spending temporarily. This plan best covers reasonably well off commuters. Its a good starting point and still a large market. Question: can or will auto leasing companies offer competitive plans using small gasoline cars?

Deutsche Bank offers two big predictions in its report. One, groups in five to ten other nations are going to announce Project Better Place look-alikes by the end of 2008. And two, other car manufacturers, beyond Renault Nissan, are going to get in on the action, and soon.

While the article ends with a reminder that Project Better Place still has no long term funding, it remains the best current hope for breakout sales of electric vehicles.

Rockefeller family call for ExxonMobil shake-up

2008-04-29T10:35:00.000-07:00

A group of descendants of John D Rockefeller, who founded its predecessor Standard Oil in 1870, will begin a campaign to split the role of chief executive and chairman of the board at Exxon, a role held by Rex Tillerson.

Last night the family group issued a statement saying that the company’s leadership was “failing to address the future of energy and related industry hurdles”.

- Rockefeller family call for ExxonMobil shake-up - Times Online

Texas is an amazing state full of wonderful people. However, it also has the sad distinction of having created some of the most rapacious and arrogant businessmen on earth. Specifically the "E boys" Enron and Exxon. The folks running both of these companies at their peak are disconnected from negative public opinion. Even President Bush, with his 69% disapproval rating, continues attempts to address issues, even if no one agrees with the methods.

The E boys, on the other hand, follow an unadulterated capitalist method: make more money for ourselves, no matter the cost to others. While you'd like to think this only works "so far" before running into issues of social responsibility, no such thing has happened. Because we depend utterly on its products (gasoline and diesel fuel), even at high prices, Exxon is now the most profitable company the US has ever known. Its also one of the most reviled.

The Rockefeller family is surely acting out of a mix of motivations. Exxon may push past an unseen social and economic breaking point, after which society will firmly adopt an attitude against its products. Over time this would completely destroy its stock value, and with it whatever investment the Rockefeller family may still have.

All other appeals to moderate Exxon's corporate behavior have failed. Hopefully "power can speak to power"... if Exxon believes that the Rockefeller family still has any influence over them at all.

New CAFE Rules: Automakers Not Complaining

2008-04-28T21:46:00.000-07:00

There is a sliding scale based on the footprint of each individual vehicle. The footprint is defined as the wheelbase times the average of the track width or the area within the wheels. The larger the footprint, the lower the threshold that vehicle has to meet. Therefore for two cars of similar overall size but one with a longer wheelbase, the longer one would have a lower mileage requirement. Each automaker is then assigned an individual threshold to meet based on the sales weighted average footprint of the vehicles it sells. A company that sells more large footprint vehicles would have a lower hurdle to jump. One that sells predominantly smaller cars would have to get better mileage. As a result a company like Porsche or Ferrari who sell relatively small sports cars would have to meet a higher standard than Ford or General Motors who sell more large trucks. - via ABG

Sam at Autobloggreen explains the curious silence from US automakers following the latest round of CAFE rule changes.

It's another example of how well-intended rulemaking, based on functional goals rather than selecting specific winning technologies, can be corrupted in the legislative process.

China in driver's seat for global green cars

2008-04-27T14:17:00.000-07:00

Nissan chief executive Carlos Ghosn says the Japanese carmaker is approaching the Chinese Government to push for a pure electric vehicle.

He said fuel economy and emission improvements with hybrids and clean diesels were not enough to support the expected explosion in China's car ownership over the coming year.

- NZ Herald

When Nissan approaches the Chinese government to "push for a pure electric vehicle" this means they're "seeking rules and subsidies" to support that. You can say Nissan is trying to "re-engineer the free market" (to be a little less free) and support their EV agenda.

The good part about this is potentially getting millions of zero emission vehicles on the road and kick starting a world market. The bad part is that the government (with Nissan's encouragement) is "preselecting a winner" in the technology race. Better would be to set functional goals, and let manufacturers try to outdo each other to reach it. However, manufacturers also like the security of knowing which technology to pursue. It "levels the playing field" and takes disruptive technologies out of the "competitive picture". An example of this is CAFE standards and emissions controls. Until recently there was no push by automakers to exceed the CAFE mandate. There remains no incentive for them to go beyond the exact, minimum "letter of the law" standard for vehicle emissions.

During the California ARB's early ZEV mandate period I discussed the proceedings with people close to the process. One of them had the view that GM was attempting back then something similar to what Nissan is trying for in China now. He said GM was, in effect, saying to California that if they really wanted all these EV-1s on the road then the state simply had to pay for them, to the tune of subsidizing the cost until mandated sales numbers could be met.

We'll see how China answers a similar appeal, this time from Nissan, and how other automakers operating the Chinese market (like GM) respond.

Toshiba to Develop SCiB Li-Ion Cells by 2010

2008-04-27T13:23:00.000-07:00

The Nikkei reports that Toshiba Corp. is targeting a 2010 deadline for developing high-power and high-energy versions of its proprietary fast-charging SCiB Lithium-ion cells (earlier post) for use in hybrid and electric vehicles.

The safety characteristics of SCiB allow recharge with a current as large as 50 amperes (A), allowing the SCiB Cell and SCiB Standard Module to recharge to 90% of full capacity in only five minutes, according to Toshiba.

Capacity loss after 3,000 cycles of rapid charge and discharge is less than 10%. SCiB can sustain more than 5,000 charge-discharges.

- Green Car Congress: Report: Toshiba Targeting 2010 for Hybrid and EV Versions of SCiB Li-Ion Cells

News of battery chemistry breakthroughs have been rampant in the last year. The next step should be announcements of production starting. Here, we have Toshiba reporting that they have set a deadline to develop (not produce) batteries suitable for Hybrids and EVs.

U.S. Sides With Oil Firms, Not Libya's Victims

2008-04-26T16:45:00.000-07:00

In January a judge in Washington awarded $6 billion against Libya because of the 1989 bombing of a French aircraft in which 170 people were killed, including seven Americans.

Ah, but how to collect?

You might think that plaintiffs in these kinds of cases would get a hand from the White House, the State Department or the Department of Justice. They became victims at the hands of terrorists, agents of countries we had listed as sponsors of terrorism. ...

Seeking Exemption

At the moment, the Bush administration is asking Congress to exempt Libya from a four-month-old law passed to help victims of terrorism collect court judgments from the nations that sponsored the attacks. The law applies to Libya, Iran, Cuba, North Korea, Syria and Sudan. - Bloomberg.com: Opinion

Why? US oil companies are trying to sign contracts with the "new improved" Libyan government, and their assets could be attacked under this law.

The author points out that the exemption is successfully blocked (at the moment), and that this has encouraged Libya to negotiate a comprehensive settlement with victims.

Another terrible example of decision making forced on the US by its dependency on oil.

$200 Per Barrl Oil Predicted

2008-04-24T22:15:00.000-07:00

Crude oil prices will soar to more than $200 (U.S.) per barrel over the next five year – driving Canadian pump prices to $2.25 a litre and forcing a fundamental transformation in the North American economy, says Jeff Rubin, chief economist with CIBC World Markets Inc. - The Globe and Mail

Rubin predicts gasoline at $7/gallon (US). This jibes with concerns raised at the SAE congress, where presenters discussed how great a change this implies for the US, whose transportation systems run almost exclusively on oil-based fuels.

Many economists and planners are still holding their breath over the possibility that the current recession will drive oil prices back down to reasonable levels. Reasonble in this case defined as not having to replace nearly every, car, airplane, truck and train in existence with a new design that is 50% more efficient.

Lutz Summarizes EV-1 & Volt Gets a Lithium Mule

2008-04-24T22:08:00.000-07:00

'The only things that were wrong with the EV1 (GM's first electric car) was that it was way too expensive to make; it was only a two-passenger; and the battery technology was not ready,' Lutz said. 'It was a noble effort, but it was a technological force job and at a time when nobody cared. We could not find more than 800 buyers for that thing no matter how hard we tried or no matter how much we dropped the price. Finally we had to lease them out.' - Breaking rules not bad thing for Lutz - Detriot News (via ABG)

Bob Lutz is the wagging open mouth of GM... fortunately for us.

He drops two useful points in the interview quoted above in Detroit News.

First, he gives his take on the EV-1 story. Too expensive to make? Only a two seater? Sure, but didn't GM have some input there? Also, couldn't an EV-2 have made different choices and evolved to Lithium Ion? The bit about 800 buyers is also disingenious. GM made the number of cars required under the MOU for the CARB ZEV. Once that law was struck down the cars were pulled back and destroyed. Remember that this was in the era of $2 (or less) per gallon gasoline. A growing market for EV-1 seemed impossible. We can only imagine how large it would be now.

Second, he confirms that the first Volt plug-in hybrid "test mules" are finally running with lithium ion batteries. While he cautions

"We have gasoline and 350 to 400 volts (of electricity) in the same vehicle and we have to be careful about it"

Let's keep it in perspective Bob: hobbyists and college graduates have been making plug-in hybrid conversions for a decade. GM should indeed be careful, but their chest beating over Volt is out of step with actual progress.

Sign of the times? Hummer registration plummets

2008-04-23T13:05:00.000-07:00

All of this raises a few questions: Is the Hummer brand is just plain falling out of favor? If so, would flex-fuel engine options help their cause? - AutoblogGreen

Ethanol flex fuel costs just as much as gasoline, so it does not help. The only way out is to increase MPG.

GM could build smaller more efficient Hummers, but these would not fit the brand image. GM could add hybrid technology, but that is expensive.

It may not be possible for GM to innovate (within cost) to attract customers during a period of high fuel prices while upholding their brand image.

Let's be clear: you can build lighter AND stronger Hummers and give them hybrid powertrains. But is the resulting truck so expensive that its customer base can no longer afford it? Worse for GM, does this problem extend to all their large SUVs, which provide significant part of their income?

G.M. Trails Toyota as U.S. Sales Slow

2008-04-23T10:42:00.000-07:00

“The big caveat is gas prices,” G.M.’s chief sales analyst, Michael C. DiGiovanni, said. “This is clearly a headwind we didn’t anticipate would be to this level.” - New York Times

While the year's numbers are far from counted, Toyota has pulled ahead of GM in the sales race. If you're watching oil prices this seems inevitable, considering that Toyota's model line doesn't depend on sales of very large SUVs in quite the way GM's does.

A GM spokesman says that harder times are ahead this summer, but that "fundamentals" support sales improvement by Fall 2008. One has to wonder just what he means by that...

Home Prices Drop Most in Areas with Long Commute

2008-04-21T16:17:00.000-07:00

Economists say home prices are nowhere near hitting bottom. But even in regions that have taken a beating, some neighborhoods remain practically unscathed. And a pattern is emerging as to which neighborhoods those are.

The ones with short commutes are faring better than places with long drives into the city. Some analysts see a pause in what has long been inexorable — urban sprawl. - NPR

Often mentioned by "peak oil" theorists, the "relocalization" effect may be underway.

The sustainability of suburbia has long been questioned. Not a few architects and planners have considered how we should design our next communities. The "New Urbanist" school of design builds living areas within walking distance of jobs and essential services. Earlier efforts extend back to "new towns" built in the post WW2 period (Britain).

Do high fuel costs mean the end of suburbia? For now, its growth is curbed. As the article points out, urban commuters did not seriously tally time spent, which incurs personal, as well as petroleum costs. As long as fuel prices stay high, the "commute until you qualify for a loan" rule no longer gives in an easy answer.

TV: NOVA Car of the Future

2008-04-20T21:49:00.000-07:00

Nova is airing a show about the "car of the future", what it meant in the past and what it might in the future. Its hosted by "Click and Clack, the Tappet Brothers", two of my favorite radio car pundits. Given the hosts, we can expect a rollicking "tongue in cheek" presentation, without the dire and dark overtones usually associated with the topic.

The show's website gives a sense of the content here NOVA Car of the Future PBS

If only a fraction of political pundits could be as knowledgable and genial as these two...

China's Fuel Subsidies Selling Larger Vehicles

2008-04-20T21:43:00.000-07:00

China is holding gasoline and diesel fuel prices below $3 a gallon, through heavy subsidies to companies like Sinopec involved in refining and distributing fuel. This has helped China restrain inflation in consumer prices, which accelerated this spring to an annual pace of more than 8 percent.

But price controls on fuel have had the effect of stimulating sales of big vehicles, despite other government policies intended to discourage such sales. - New York Times

Will we never learn?

Unlike China the US does not directly control the price of gasoline and diesel fuel (though rising prices are raising calls to do so). Instead, the US has created a deeply ingrained set of subsidies and advantages for the oil industry. In the end, they amount to the same thing and have the same effect: cheap fuel allows consumers to purchase "personal locomotives" for their daily use.

These subsidies are always based on good intentions. The early history of the US oil industry was one of dramatic price swings, so severe that infrastructure was abandoned during lows and capacity perpetually missing during highs. More recently, support for the oil industry has been based on the simple fact that so much of our economy depends on it. Cheapening transportation fuels has been an almost a direct economic stimulus. Lately this connection appears to have weakened. The world economy has been able to maintain reasonable growth in the face of a 5x increase in oil prices.

Rather than trying to create a patchwork of fixes by adding new ones on top of the existing subsidies the US and China should gradully turn off the more egregious ones, while keeping a small number which only activate in case of a severe downturn.

Corporations and consumers alike are guilty of simply acting in their best interest. Its our government which needs to fix the "engineering of the marketplace" so that better decisions are made by oil companies, auto companies and consumers based on their own self interest.

Solar Energy Offsets in the Home

2008-04-20T13:41:00.000-07:00

As an engineer I've been curious how far the idea of solar assist can reduce home energy use.

The three big energy users in most homes are: hot water, refrigeration (food) and air conditioning (cooling). Solar can reduce each of these.

Solar hot water is one of the most cost and energy effective add-ons. Payback can be short, depending on where you're located. A set of panels on the roof have a pump circulating water between them and a water storage tank. When the temperature on the roof goes up the pump starts and water in the storage tank is "pre-heated". A second tank or tankless water heater completes heating and takes over on cold + cloudy days.

Photovoltaic electric power generating "solar panels" offset or eliminate your home's use of electricity from "the grid". Their versatility is in offsetting ALL electric use. If water and air are heated by natural gas they don't help. But, in "all electric" homes, everything benefits. They "make up" for air conditioning power use, especially considering that when the sun heats up a home its also best positioned to make electricity through panels on the roof. A "heat pump" style HVAC system (air or geothermal) also benefits neatly from local solar power.

A more exotic way to cool or heat a home uses solar heated water directly. For engineers this is an "absorption system". Diagrams for one unit can be seen here Yazaki Energy - Water Fired Single-Effect Chiller ("How It Works" page)

There are many other schemes. One uses a solar powered stirling cycle engine to run a pump, which pushes refrigerant through a loop in the house. Another recirculates a dessicant liquid (water absorbing, dryer) using solar heat to regenerate (redry) and pump it.

Overall, its clear to see that as energy prices go up there are already a large number of established alternatives to conventional HVAC and hot water heating ready for us if costs for mains electricity and piped natural gas go too high.

Prof. Andrew Frank's Pet PHEV

2008-04-20T08:14:00.000-07:00

Thanks to a 'perfect storm' of superior technology, soaring gas prices and concern about the environment, Frank has the attention of the nation's big automakers and the ears of industry leaders, including former Chrysler chairman Lee Iacocca. Public interest in his 'plug-in hybrid electric vehicle,' or PHEV, he says, has never been higher. - sacbee.com

Good overview article on Dr. Andrew Frank, a long time advocate of plug-in hybrids. He and his graduate students have been building them for some time, with increasing attention from automakers. Last year Toyota paid to have one shipped to Japan for examination.

Frank mentions that his first attempts were as early as 1972, but then the computer and power control electronics weren't yet ready. Electronics are surely ready now, with only the cost reductions of mass produced large batteries being the last barrier to commercial production.

How to Build a Better Battery

2008-04-19T09:10:00.000-07:00

A connoisseur of batteries and a debunker of the so-called breakthroughs that come around like clockwork every couple of years, [Lee] Hart makes it his business to parse hype from performance. Whenever he hears about a new battery, the 58-year-old self-employed electrical engineer (he did lab work at Eastman Kodak and Honeywell) writes the company and asks for a prototype to be sent to his home in Sartell, Minnesota. 'I'm a cheapskate, and sometimes they'll send me a free one,' he jokes. So far, he still prefers lead-acid batteries. Using a life-extending charging system he designed himself, he's converting his third electric car to handle 14 of them; a buoyant pride creeps into his voice as he notes that most of the batteries are 8 to 10 years old. 'Just like you don't feed an old dog puppy chow,' he says, an old dog himself with the white tufts on the sides of his balding head combed up to resemble Mercury's wings, 'you treat old batteries differently.' - Mother Jones

Batteries remain one of the only ways to store electric energy with reasonable portability. Lee Hart, a well known EV enthusiast, and others are interviewed about where the technology is and where its going.

Experts: Automakers need one fuel technology

2008-04-18T20:41:00.000-07:00

Automakers need to form some consensus on the technology they will use to improve fuel economy — whether it's diesels, hybrids, electric vehicles or hydrogen fuel cells — and do a better of explaining those options if they want consumers to buy in, auto industry experts said Wednesday at a conference for engineers. - Autos- msnbc.com

At the recent Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) conference a panel of experts recommended consolidating efforts to improve fuel economy, in effect saying that creating too many choices would confuse and demotivate consumers.

Fair enough, "getting all your wood behind one arrow" is a common sense approach. However...

What's called for is not a single, potentially flawed approach adopted by all automakers. In particular, the headline calls for a single "fuel" technology, while the actual technologies being developed go far beyond new fuels (potentially flawed) like ethanol.

What's needed is a spectrum of responses, with funding and effort emphasis on near-term and a decreasing fan out into future possibilities.

Considered in this light, the current emphasis on deploying diesel, hybrids, cellulosic ethanol (if possible), then plug-in hybrids and (eventually) fuel cells should be funded in about that priority order. However, automakers still seem to tout the farthest out possibility first (fuel cells), along with the nearest term items (diesel and ethanol).

Automakers Mandated for Clean Cars... but Energy Companies?

2008-04-17T07:48:00.000-07:00

In this Autoblog Green article, Larry Burns of Toyota calls on energy companies to use some of their recent enormous profit to invest in hydrogen fueling infrastructure. Different automakers have repeated this call over the last two or so years.

Its getting more plaintive. "Hey guys give us some hydrogen... Guys? Anyone there?"

Automakers have tried to meet the California ZEV mandate with advanced fuel cell cars. But these require hydrogen filling stations be built. There is no matching mandate on energy companies which hits them with fines if they don't build the stations. California's governor has pushed state funding of "the hydrogen highway" but let's face it: California's budget is a mess and tiny compared to oil company profits.

A step toward this was taken with the "low carbon fuel initiative" in California. Unsurprisingly, studies for that initiative have focussed effort on low GHG ethanol production.

I'm not a fan of fuel cells. There are simpler near-term solutions like hybrids. However, what we see here is that ad hoc regulation of related industries (autos and energy) does not foster cooperation between them, which is clearly needed to reach a working solution.

Note: this post was edited to mention California's "low carbon fuel" initiative and eliminate a suggested RFP process.

Some Perspective on the Bakken Oil Field

2008-04-14T08:59:00.000-07:00

The U.S. government's press release did look impressive, mind you. The Bakken Formation, a 40,000 square kilometre territory reaching into Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Montana, and North Dakota, showed a '25-fold increase in the amount of oil that can be recovered,' at least compared to 1995 estimates.

A 25-fold increase? That's huge – or so it sounds.

But then you start comparing numbers. Assuming all 4.3 billion barrels could be retrieved, it would represent nine months of oil consumption in the United States.

Canada's oil sands hold about 177 billion barrels, and Saudi Arabia has an estimated 250 billion barrels, if you can believe the numbers.

Now, let's consider the nature of the Bakken oil. It doesn't sit in big underground pools where you can just pop in a metal straw and suck it out. This oil is trapped in layers of shale – a sedimentary rock – up to 3,000 metres deep. Getting at it is expensive and difficult, and certainly damaging to the surrounding landscape and environment. - TheStar.com

There's been quite a bit of news repeating the USGS press release about the Bakken oil play in the midwestern USA. While its a useful resource, the cost of going after this type of oil hasn't been covered much.

Like ANWR and ConShelf, these are resources the US should go after. However, our political process has proved to be easily corrupted. This has lead to terrible licensing and royalty arrangements with oil companies, and a less than stellar record on environmental issues.

But the answer isn't to stick our heads in the sand and say "never drill there", rather we should fix the oversight and licensing problems and get on with it. Oil will become more expensive regardless, but these sources will make the transition away from it less catastrophic.

GM Brand Image Pays the Price

2008-04-09T23:01:00.000-07:00

GM still has a lot of life in it. But the company is paying quite a price for narrowly using its technical and manufacturing skills to push technology into large SUVs.

For example, GM made logical arguments about hybrid technology being most appropriate for its most thirsty vehicles (large SUVs) rather than smaller cars, saying that it could better reduce consumption and more easily recoup costs in larger vehicles. This blog previously speculated large SUV profit margins could allow GM to reduce the cost of the "hybrid option" by reducing its profit margins a bit. Apparently its not they way "The General" likes to do things. These vehicles are priced at $54,000 in "stripper" configuration.

With cost of the "dual mode" hybrid system in GM's large SUVs so spectacular, there's a corresponding impact on sales. Apparently GM has only sold 843 units in the first three months of this year. That's likely due to the triple whammy of fading popularity of large SUVs (crossovers rising), increasing fuel prices and the oncoming recession. In the meantime Ford has sold thousands of Escape hybrids, whose size at launch was considered a bit small but (surprise) now matches the average buyer expectations.

Hints are also surfacing that GM's "great white hope" the Volt "world-beater" plug-in hybrid's price has escalated over $48,000.

One advanage for GM in this is that they certainly won't need to build many of these efficient, high-tech vehicles, especially if they're incurring a loss on them (as also hinted). Its possible this is why Bob Lutz was recently quoted saying the US needs to "Go simpler" with more ethanol instead of high-tech. Bob can keep calling for a "deus ex machina" from the "cruise on booze" vendors, but its unlikely to happen.

You could say GM is reaping what it has sown: a corporate image based on unflinching toughness centered squarely on pickups and SUVs is falling completely out of favor with the public. Smart Cars and the Toyota Yaris are flying off the sales lot. The problem facing the company is that it may be much more difficult to separate its brand-image from its "decade promoted" heavy, powerful and thirsty image.

In other words: customers may decide the best way to buy a more efficient vehicle is to avoid the GM brand entirely (including Saturn; imagine if they had an EV-3 on sale now). The company needs to also associate its brand with high tech, luxury-oriented small cars with clever efficiency features (like start/stop) at reasonable prices. Giving up some of the brand testosterone (but not all) by associating it with clever, smaller cars will do them a world of good.

Where Does Volt Fit into GM's Plans?

2008-04-07T18:23:00.000-07:00

Stepping back from the nay-sayers, who hold that General Motors won't build the Volt plug-in hybrid, the question becomes "Where does it fit into GM's plans?" The simplest answer is that the Volt build will be just large enough to fulfill quotas, like that of the (now quite watered down) California ZEV mandate. Stealing some of the "green praise" lavished on Toyota's Prius hybrid along the way would be an added bonus.

In spite of GM's public insistence that "Getting Volt done" is their top priority what about the long term?

Meanwhile, Burns says work is already under way on the second generation. He declines to give a timeframe.

While it might sound ominous, it makes sense GM would be mute on second generation product before the first is released. Indeed, its been amazing how noisy GM has been about generation one before its release, though that is in line with the goal of taking green publicity from Toyota.

Plug-ins may be exciting, but with a range of only 40 miles [sic], they fall short in comparison to a family-size fuel-cell vehicle with a 300-mile range and zero emissions. Burns sees work on plug-ins as a complementary play to FCVs that convert hydrogen to electricity onboard, with batteries for power assist and to store energy regenerated in braking.

A bit of carefully crafted negativism by Car and Driver here. The actual range of the Volt has been stated at 400 miles, but (reading carefully) those are not "zero emissions".

Referring to Larry Burns, the article continues:

And he doesn’t anticipate that the Chevy Tahoe or other full-size vehicles—or even minivans, wagons or mid-size SUVs—will be offered as plug-ins. “It’s okay for a Cobalt-sized vehicle, but not something with twice the mass.” For larger vehicles, GM’s two-mode hybrid system makes more sense. And efficient gasoline engines will continue to play a significant role in the future, Burns says. - Car And Driver

Bearing in mind we're reading "mainstream auto magazine here" these closing statements are the GM corporate line. The unstated fact excluding plug-in technology from larger vehicles is battery cost. Hybrid systems like GM's "dual mode" and Toyota's THS are designed beginning with the goal of reducing battery size. It doesn't consider "electric transmission" designs, without batteries, instead coupling the engine to a generator and managing power to electric motors at each wheel. Some of the largest wheeled vehicles in the world use this system, including strip mine dump trucks and diesel-electric locomotives.

Considering the largest SUVs are nearly "personal locomotives" (even including "couplers" for towing), these drive trains may provide valuable capabilities, albeit at higher cost.

How Realistic is EIA's US Domestic Oil Supply and Demand Forecast?

2008-04-06T17:12:00.000-07:00

04:28 MR. ROBERTSON: This is the U.S. so this says that we’re going to have to import, you know, about the same amount of oil, according to this case and the next 20 years, and the real problem is, you know, is that available to be imported? I mean, everybody else in the world is obviously competing for that 11.5 million barrels as well. So you know, what is going to happen to prices during this period and how tight is the rest of the world going to be? - The Oil Drum

An article from the Oil Drum points out how sketchy the EIA modelling of supply and demand is, at least the part their willing to share with the public. Increasingly, it looks like an open secret that there is no simple way to meet growing global demand for conventional crude oil in the next decade.

As Mr. Robertson points out, since this chart refers to petroleum, and because that is society's primary energy source for transportation (order 70%), this is where the biggest changes will occur. This indicates the scale of the opportunities.

The key substitutions for increasingly expensive oil will be electricity and natural gas. Coal and nuclear are jostling for position in the electric generation market, with surprisingly successful pushback against "King Coal". Natural gas may be a non-starter due to its price being linked to oil. Current biofuels are a lost cause. While there is a tiny hope for a biofuel breakthrough, capturing sunlight with plants is vastly less efficient than using solar panels to recharge batteries.

If you're thinking about starting up a company to build battery dominant plug-in hybrids, now might be a very good time to get on with it.

New law would recreate Iraqi oil company

2008-04-06T16:50:00.000-07:00

The Iraqi oil sector has been hampered by decades of neglect and lack of investment during Saddam Hussein's rule. Since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, attacks on oil infrastructure have held back production, which recovered prewar levels only at the end of last year. Iraq sits on the world's third-largest oil reserves, totaling more than 115 billion barrels. Its average production for February was 2.4 million barrels per day and exports averaged 1.93 million barrels per day. - New law would recreate Iraqi oil company - Yahoo! News

Another disappointment to the neoconservative fantasy of the Iraq war: the restoration of Iraq National Oil Company.

Just two years ago news media rang with reports that the provisional Iraq government was being pushed to sign cost plus contracts for oil development. These contracts would have foreign companies, likely US, taking over development of the oil fields along with a lion's share of profits.

While one can fairly say the risk involved might warrant such contracts, one can see where this has all led. The continued failure to quell unrest in the country, likely supported by next-door neighbor Iran, means that the government of Iraq is slowly coming to realize that its only real national power will rest in oil revenue. As such, and in line with the re-nationalization of oil production in many other countries, the new government really doesn't have much choice.

Either they keep complete control over their oil resources or a large part of their power identity is lost.

Railroads: Pay to Eliminate Our Externalities

2008-04-06T16:42:00.000-07:00

As fuel becomes more expensive the railroad industry has been one of the biggest winners. Primarily, they have been gifted with vastly increased coal shipping. Slowly, the efficiency of "steel wheels on steel rails" is winning back business from the trucking industry, which has been hit hard by increasing diesel fuel costs.

The result:

The railroads' solution? Spending billions of dollars to bolster their web of rail lines across the country, resulting in the biggest railroad building boom since World War I.
Yet despite record profits and recent soaring stock prices, railroads are increasingly looking to states and the federal government to help pay for expansion projects. Their argument is that by adding tracks, less freight moves by trucks on nearby roads, creating public benefits such as reduced highway congestion and less air emissions. The public should pay for those benefits, railroad officials say. - Railroads expanding at record clip HamptonRoads.com

In economics, impacts that are not part of the economy are called "externalities". The most infamous of these is generally the cost of health impacts due to pollution. Many companies pollute, but do not pay to mitigate that pollution.

This is the first time I've heard a company make a straight-faced argument that taxpayer money should pay to mitigate its externalities. The sensible argument here is that trucking causes congestion and pollution (externalities), and that the trucking industry should pay the rail industry to mitigate those problems.

While this could be done with a tax on the trucking industry that would amount to hitting it with a rather large hammer at a time when its down and out due to fuel prices. I also suspect the image of independent truck drivers going up against giant rail conglomerates would solidly put public opinion on the side of truckers.

The better argument is that rail is useful public infrastructure, like the highway system. However, highways are open access. Rail is not. So, in short, if the rail companies would like public money to expand their networks, it would be good to see someone make the argument for more open access to those transportation networks. The US is one of the only countries where passenger trains are sidelined to give freight the right of way. Perhaps these kinds of issues could be put on the table.

China: Building Wonderland

2008-04-06T16:27:00.000-07:00

Article from the New York Times about China's housing boom, as seen through the lens of Wang Shi, ones of its most successful real estate developers.

Key Magazine - Real Estate - Housing - China - Wang Shi - New York Times

The German and Japanese "Economic Miracles" after WW2 will inevitably be compared to China's incredible recent growth. The starting point in such discussion will be how the starting points of the "miracles" differ.

Leaving aside surface issues, how government ownership of land required real estate development to proceed from corrupt ties to local officials, there are larger and more interesting shifts. Key philosophical changes are occurring in the socialist country: an acceptance of economic class, and how this limits actual freedom beyond what ideologies would like to declare.

In other words, in step with material changes like the construction of enormous gated communities, the people of China are slowly being fractioned into economic layers. It remains to be seen whether the lower rungs of the new society will be any better served than in the past.

Iranian Pres. calls for joint OPEC bank, currency

2008-04-06T16:15:00.000-07:00

After hints that Iran was behind the recent ceasefire in Southern Iraq, here's more news that the crafty country continues to press its advantage: a suggestion that OPEC form its own bank and print its own currency.

كونا : Iranian Pres. calls for joint OPEC bank, currency - الطاقة والثروة المعدنية - 06/04/2008

Considering that much of the US's economic power has come from the dollar's status as world reserve currency, this could cause quite an upset. Consider that the dollar has fallen some 30% against other major currencies in the last years, while oil prices have risen some 500%.

If Iran establishes a currency in effect "backed by the value of oil" it would increase in value along those lines. However, some points to consider: oil prices can be quite volatile, depending on supply/demand balance. Also, a country's ability to manage its debt is at least partially done through inflation (one factor of which is currency devaluation). Thus, while an "OPEC dollar" might be very strong and allow for enormous spending, it might make managing debt harder in some ways.

Rumor: GM Backing Away from Volt?

2008-03-17T11:17:00.000-07:00

Strictly in the realm of hearsay, but interesting.

While GM has repeatedly complained about the cost of the battery pack in the Volt, the linked article indicates an initial $10,000 unit cost and fuels speculation GM may be cooling on development of the Volt. A comment to the article hints that GM has laid off workers on the Volt project. This in itself would not be surprising. Needed expertise shifts and the workers may simply have gone to other GM projects. Or it could be a lie on the part of the commentator.

Speculation on the real value of this project to GM will continue. In particular, and given repeated reports of "high level" meetings between GM and Toyota, Volt may simply be a bargaining chip between these two companies. If successful it would cause Prius and its THC technology to lose face. But in return for exactly what would GM eliminate the Volt project?

Of course, if a shutdown of Volt were underway, it would indeed begin with GM emphasizing "technical issues" of the project, with the battery the most likely target.

Reusing Heat in the Kitchen

2008-03-16T20:31:00.001-07:00

In the average home, the refrigerator and hot water heater are two of the biggest energy users (during summertime A/C as well). To date, with energy relatively cheap and reliability a paramount concern, these devices have been designed to be separate. High energy prices have spurred a rethink, consider: fridge makes heat, which the water heater needs.

Whirlpool has (apparently, I've not found a definitive source on the web) made a press release about a kitchen system that uses waste heat from the fridge to preheat dishwashing water.

Whirlpool shows green kitchen concept

What's most interesting about this idea is that its a more practical "combined heat and power" (CHP) system. In traditional CHP (or cogeneration) systems a natural gas powered electric generator's waste heat is used to produce hot water. While these systems can be enormously efficient their purchase and maintenance costs have been extremely high.

Another related concept is solar hot water heating. These systems are generally complex and require panels installed on the roof, a "holding tank" for the preheated water, and then some kind of "final stage" heater. Again, the system cost tends to be high, dominated by installation price. The payback time for solar water heating is shorter than CHP and in fact better than current solar power panels.

The Whirlpool concept, has a number of quite significant advantages. A key one is that the water preheated by the fridge's cooling coils can be held in a modest size insulated storage tank near the point of use. The primary user being the dishwasher, though one can see using it for heating tap water as well.

Its also easy to imagine this being offered incrementally. Consider a fridge where the first two feet of cooling coils come preinstalled in a watertight box. Two connectors in/out. Optionally, the homeowner could install a small insulated water tank to store the (dumped) heat. That tank could feed the dishwasher through a small "flash heater" which would make up the temperature difference. Lots of potential here. A major boost would be "Energy Star" recognition of the advantage.

What do we call this? I'm sure there's a real industry term. Its not CHP, nor is it cogeneration. Perhaps thermal recycling?

Solar Parking Deck + PHEVs = Big Sun Battery

2008-03-12T17:38:00.000-07:00

There are various ideas floating around on how to promote electric grid load levelling using plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). Here's one: encourage companies to put large solar panel arrays over their parking lots (or parking decks), with recharging ports, and either subsidize employee purchase of PHEV commuter vehicles or provide a rental fleet of same.

During the day, employees would drive their cars to work, plug in and recharge using clean solar power during the day. If the electric grid needed power for a few hours of load levelling (e.g. high air conditioning during the day) the PHEVs could provide it.

At night, the cars are driven home and again plugged in for recharge and load levelling.

The are a number of points here that could be valuable:

known commuting route means recharge / discharge can be managed
single parking structure can be provided with high power two-way electric service
fleet purchase rental means group sales for automakers

Most of the load levelling benefit could go toward reducing either the purchase or rental price of the PHEVs.

A scheme like this might bring PHEVs in the load-levelling role more easily.

BMW Reveals Electric Car Development

2008-02-06T11:37:00.000-08:00

After rumors circulated this week Jochen Schmalholz the head of BMW's clean energy technology group mentioned that indeed, the company is looking at developing an electric car.

The comments were made in the context of hydrogen vehicles still being 20+ years away, with distribution as the big sticking point. He said there are only five liquid hydrogen refueling stations. To this I would respond "Of course". Liquid hydrogen makes no sense for anything other than fleet use.

The article linked above ends with Mr. Schmalholz' comment that BMW is not convinced that electrics makes sense for the company, but if it makes sense for customers they will look into it. He also mentions oil prices and such, which reminds us that automakers can only respond to "trends" that outlast 2 of their development cycles. That would be five to six years.

Indeed, BMW is one of the last bastions of "total pride in mechanical engineering". Even Porsche has "gone over" and designed a hybrid version of their large SUV. BMW on the other hand, has long maintained that hybrids make no economic sense. For some time this was the party line from the entire auto industry (barring Toyota). Recently BMW has introduced the "efficient dynamics" catchphrase to identify their micro-hybrids and related work. A small step.

While the rumor articles have repeatedly mentioned the post-war BMW Isetta as a model I personally doubt this. BMW's engagement with "electrics" could be done at "arm's length" in the form of a three wheel "Isetta" released by their motorcycling group. But the company prides itself on very well engineered and unique solutions, emphasizing their prowess in mechanical engineering. I believe that, while they may examine pure electrics as an exercise, what they actually decide to build as product will be discovered along the way. Most likely this will be some insight from a random engineer, perhaps something as simple as a different layout (putting the secondary motors in a unique location), or something as complex as an all-electric transmission system.

Unless they turn this project over to their motorcycling group as a niche product, I think it is neigh impossible we will see a BMW branded Isetta three wheel battery electric car. It simply doesn't match their brand image.

Dingell's Auto Efficiency Bill

2008-02-03T09:52:00.000-08:00

And big trucks won't have to meet the same miles-per-gallon limit as smaller vehicles. The new law creates a sliding scale of fuel efficiency requirements, with big SUVs having easier targets than smaller SUVs and big cars having lower standards than small cars.

Because American carmakers tend to make larger and heavier vehicles, Detroit's 'Big Three' of General Motors, Ford and Chrysler will have to meet an average of 33 miles per gallon by 2020 under the new law, while their foreign competitors will be held to an average of 38 mpg, according to an analysis by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute.
- "Not guzzling but still thirsty" -- baltimoresun.com

You may have gotten a warm feeling after hearing that new auto efficiency standards were passed into law last fall. Talk of 40 MPG cars and automakers complaints circulated for a few weeks.

Well, don't worry about all that too much. It turns out the Rep. Dingell and his friends in Michigan are complaining like a rabbit being thrown into the briar patch.

US automakers will actually be held to a lower efficiency standard vs. foreign makers, and can even get some of the fines they pay for exceeding the standards returned to them to support "plant investments".

While heralded as "a good compromise all around" I wonder if this softball approach will stop US automakers from becoming better competitors in the world marketplace. More likely, it cements their position as privileged participants, making them more vulnerable to the next shift in the marketplace.

The REVolution with be Terminologized...

2008-02-02T14:38:00.000-08:00

In the last week ABG, and the gadgets blogs have picked up on Tesla's Whitestar story, sounding a bit surprised that the next vehicle from 'the electic car company' will be a serial hybrid... like the Chevy Volt.

In particular a new term is being used: REV or Range Extended Vehicle. Probably that should be REEV or Range Extended Electric Vehicle, but...

New marketing terminology aside the real question this brings up is just how Tesla will compete Whitestar against Volt? On the one hand you might say they're two completely different cars. In particular, Tesla has said Whitestar is a sporty sedan, whereas GM (at least to date) emphasizes that Volt will be affordably priced (within limits; they're quoting $30-40,000).

The second question is product differentiation. We may very well get into a cellphone style "mine is smaller than yours" competition, where REV makers tout how tiny their range extending motor+genset is. This recalls the Dustin Hoffman TV commercial for the Volkswagen station wagon from the 1960s, where he can't find the engine. Perhaps he'd be willing to reprise the role?

But 'fashionably small' an advertising campaign does not make. The gauntlet has been thrown and the turf over which the battle will be fought is now defined. Can plucky Tesla win this one? I'm cheering for the little guy, but have serious doubts. Unlike the Roadster, this product is firmly in enemy territory.

Tesla Fixes Transmission by Eliminating It

2008-01-26T09:44:00.000-08:00

Electric cars have a unique drivetrain design advantage. Because electric motors operate over a very wide range of RPMs they don't normally need a transmission. In fact, putting a transmission into an EV is very rare. The GM EV-1, Th!nk City, Reva, etc. all use a simple reduction gear between the electric motor and the wheels.

Over the last year the Tesla Roadster has been delayed by repeated failures of its transmission during testing. Simply, the electric motor generates huge amounts of torque, which need to pass through the transmission. That caused two separate transmission designs to break after only a few thousand miles of operation. Martin Eberhard was fired in the last month, seemingly due to his inability to manage this problem.

So why did the Roadster need the transmission in the first place? To meet both goals of the roadster: long driving range and very quick 0-60 acceleration, they needed a two speed transmission. First gear allowed for sub 4 second 0-60 times, while second gear stretched battery life over 200 miles.

The reason different gearing was needed to meet the blistering acceleration goal is basically heat. Electric motors, somewhat like gasoline motors, are heat limited. When the engine melts the fun's over. The Roadster's motor was air-cooled until last week. Now it will be water cooled. Added to this are new controller electronics which push lots more power into the motor so that it still achieves those low 0-60 times.

The water-cooled motor and advanced controller were apparently developed for the upcoming "White Star" sedan from Tesla. Details of this car are still in flux, though some reports indicate it may be a serial hybrid instead of pure battery electric.

No matter, its good to see Tesla Cut the Gordian Knot as regards its transmission problems and move the car one giant step closer to being in customer's hands.

Project Better Place: Small Battery Packs?

2008-01-22T11:21:00.000-08:00

One item that's going somewhat unnoticed in the Project Better Place announcements is their use of a "100 mile range" battery pack. In itself that range number is unremarkable. The 21 KWHr NiMH pack in the GM EV-1 Gen 2 was good for 120 miles or so range. However, compared to the Tesla Roadster's 200 mile range pack its quite a bit smaller. In fact, its small enough that the weight, and thereby the EV's battery pack mass-fraction, may drop into a range where the "pack replacement strategy" makes more sense.

Win or lose, this will be a fascinating project to watch.

Nigerian Gov Demands Oil Co. Taxes at Gunpoint

2008-01-22T11:08:00.000-08:00

Oil companies have worked in unstable countries with questionable governments for years. However, this confrontation could change the dynamic considerably.

Norway's Statoil had a legal dispute with the Nigerian government over not paying taxes on their oil production. Generally speaking oil companies have armies of lawyers who can tie up payments and contracts for years if need be.

The Nigerians found a way to cut this Gordian Knot: send armed police and tax agents to the head office of Statoil in Lagos to collect $800,000 in payments. Immediately. At gunpoint. The office manager complied saying "It is a special situation."

Countries with sufficient technical resources can re-nationalize their oil industries to increase the percetage of oil revenue they keep. Nigeria seems to have found a way to keep the benefit of outsourced oil extraction and still "recapture" more revenue. Since this worked, its logical they will make more and larger demands (with similar collections) from the other companies operating there.

Stocks Plunge Worldwide on Fears of U.S. Recession

2008-01-21T16:44:00.000-08:00

FRANKFURT — Fears that the United States is in a recession reverberated around the world on Monday, sending stock markets from Bombay to Frankfurt into a tailspin and puncturing the hopes of many investors that Europe and Asia will be able to sidestep an American downturn. - Stocks Plunge Worldwide on Fears of a U.S. Recession - New York Times

So it begins: history repeats itself, and we may be at a deja vu moment.

After the oil shocks of the late 1970s a deep recession froze environmental regulation while thoroughly clearing the table of higher mileage vehicle designs. Consumers certainly changed their buying habits, but instead of looking toward innovation in electrics or hybrids they simply bought smaller vehicles with smaller engines. Remember the VW Pickup trucks?

Its not at all clear that this recession will have the same deep effect on the current crop of EV startups, fuel cell plans and hybrids planned for sale, but rest assured: recessions lasting more than just a short while cause serious change.

What does this mean for Project Better Place? Tesla? GM's Volt? Or even Toyota's bulwark sales of the Prius?

Time will tell.